Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
Combat + 3D: a typical launch earns $192 in its first year
That is the median of 120 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 11 of 267 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 15.9 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 10% on the year before: 193 against 175.
- Big publishers: over 85% from majors or $40+ games
- Price
- $192 median of 120 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- −52.5% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 193 175 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 607 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 1,457 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 0.43%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.24% to 0.75% | 47 ranked of 607 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #545 of 7,193pairs on this board |
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.
| 0.74xhits against expected | 0.52x to 1.10x | 267 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #4,469 of 6,324pairs on this board |
| Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. | +22%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam | +2% to +54% | 29 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months | #698 of 2,361pairs on this board |
| Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. | −1%review growth against same-age games | −9% to +8% | 29 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025 | #849 of 2,461pairs on this board |
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 267
- Hit rate
- 4.1%3.0% to 7.1%
- Expected rate
- 5.9%
- Against expected
- 0.74x0.52x to 1.10x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
267 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $0
- Median
- $202
- Top tenth
- $12,115
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- +10%
- Against Steam
- −19%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases
Parent tags
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
- MindsEye (opens the Steam store)2025 · 2,864 reviews, 48% positiveest. $1.9M
- Samson (opens the Steam store)2026 · 3,057 reviews, 55% positiveest. $1.5M
- Gigantic: Rampage Edition (opens the Steam store)2024 · 3,796 reviews, 64% positiveest. $1.5M
- Dinoblade (opens the Steam store)2026 · 2,466 reviews, 90% positiveest. $998k
- Aces of Thunder (opens the Steam store)2026 · 1,174 reviews, 57% positiveest. $713k
- Carmageddon: Rogue Shift (opens the Steam store)2026 · 756 reviews, 62% positiveest. $612k
- Brickadia (opens the Steam store)2025 · 1,270 reviews, 81% positiveest. $514k
- Angeline Era (opens the Steam store)2025 · 654 reviews, 95% positiveest. $331k
More with Combat
pairs with Combat- Combat + Action RPG$1,57755 launches priced, 70 releases in 12 months
- Roguelite + Combat$1,20546 launches priced, 87 releases in 12 months
- Exploration + Combat$1,17356 launches priced, 88 releases in 12 months
- Hack and Slash + Combat$80946 launches priced, 66 releases in 12 months
- Combat + Beat 'em up$80933 launches priced, 44 releases in 12 months
- RPG + Combat$76896 launches priced, 139 releases in 12 months
More with 3D
pairs with 3D- 3D + Dark Humor$3,90132 launches priced, 46 releases in 12 months
- 3D + Cozy$3,23738 launches priced, 91 releases in 12 months
- 3D + Economy$3,15761 launches priced, 109 releases in 12 months
- 3D + Management$2,196130 launches priced, 192 releases in 12 months
- Story Rich + 3D$2,162144 launches priced, 256 releases in 12 months
- 3D + Resource Management$2,02434 launches priced, 66 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
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