Launch success
$10 to $20Best chance of $100k+ at this price, above its base rateAudience split
Cozyabout 2.4 times the 21 in 100 for any game at this price50 in 100
Open Cozy
The big board
Base rate
all pricesIndie paid launches that earned an est. $100k+
1 in 15 launches1,749 of 26,758 launches, about 6 to 7.5 in 1006.5%
7 in 100earned $100k+ in year one
21 in 100at $10 to $20
$562typical launch, all prices, first year
Top earners
$10 to $20Typical first-year earnings, indie launches
Cozytypical first year at $10 to $20, from 114 launches$103,444
See genres by pay
Releasing soon
next 90 daysDated, verified against the store
Witchbrookwishlist rank 9, out Jan 28, 2027#9
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Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer. How it is measured
Now showingSpace port
The 5 most wishlisted games out in the next 30 days.
Steam wishlist rank and followers on 31 Oct 2026; release days checked against the store. New scene every 3 days.
- Taller rocket: more Steam followers
- Soonest first; the soonest one flies
Best niches
$10 to $20Tag pairs with the best chance of $100k+, above the base rateFree until launch
Cozy + Relaxingabout 2.9 times the 21 in 100 for any game at this price60 in 100
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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds for their price
Crowded months
next 6 monthsDated releases among the most wishlisted games
Novbiggest: ArcheAge Chronicles, rank 4523 games
23Nov
16Dec
11Jan 2027
9Feb
8Mar
5Apr
Price sweet spot
rotates dailySurvival: odds at each price, against that price
Survival at $20 to $40actual 71 in 100, expected 44 in 1001.6 times
0 of 489<$5489 launches
1 in 31$5-$10280 launches
25 in 100$10-$20201 launches
71 in 100$20-$4063 launches
Line = any game at that price
Best bets
$10 to $20Good odds and good typical earnings together
Cozyactual 50 in 100, typical $103,444$103k
Cozybetter oddsearns more
Steam index
2 NovTypical new launch, last 4 quarters
Down 21.2%on a year earlier, 16,151 launches$668
$801Q4 24
$776Q1 25
$705Q2 25
$668Q3 25
One-hit check
all pricesShare of a genre's money held by its biggest game
Jump ScareFive Nights at Freddy's: Help Wanted 2 holds it, of 49 launches92.0%
Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: too few to tell.
Why medians matterMost anticipated
of 135Share of upcoming wishlist attention
RPG1,088 ranked upcoming games, top one holds 19.8%30.7%
See the calendar
Genre spotlight
rotates dailyOne genre across every measure, all pricesFree until launch
MedievalBellwright holds 17.0% of its money$575
Hit odds1 in 13expected 1 in 14 for its prices
Typical$575first-year earnings
Launches616indie paid, 12 to 36 months
Rising demandNot computed yetnot ranked, or no clear change
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewGenre spotlightFree until launchClick to unlockOne genre, every measure
Look up a genre
How is your kind of game doing?
Popular:SimulationRPGArcadeAction-AdventureCozy + Relaxing
Or tap one: odds of $100k+ at $10 to $20 (all genres: 21 in 100)
Out soon, most wishlisted
dated within 90 days; wishlist rank 2 Nov, followers 31 Oct; checked against the store 2 Nov- Wishlist rank #9Witchbrook(opens the Steam store)Jan 28, 2027in 87 days120,140 followers
- Wishlist rank #17Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War IV(opens the Steam store)Dec 3, 2026in 31 days94,895 followers
- Wishlist rank #39Beautiful Light(opens the Steam store)December 2026in 29 days71,885 followers
- Wishlist rank #45ArcheAge Chronicles(opens the Steam store)Nov 3, 2026in 1 day65,350 followers
- Wishlist rank #46Hela: of Mice & Magic(opens the Steam store)Dec 1, 2026in 29 days39,069 followers
- Wishlist rank #66Stronghold 4(opens the Steam store)Dec 7, 2026in 35 days41,801 followers
- Wishlist rank #56STRANGER THAN HEAVEN(opens the Steam store)Jan 14, 2027in 73 days28,531 followers
- Wishlist rank #60DREADMOOR(opens the Steam store)Nov 9, 2026in 7 days29,587 followers
- Wishlist rank #94ANANTA(opens the Steam store)Jan 15, 2027in 74 days27,898 followers
- Wishlist rank #83Warhammer Survivors(opens the Steam store)Nov 10, 2026in 8 days23,286 followers
Full release calendarThe 10 games with the most wishlist pull, by wishlist rank and followers. Gaining fast: see the Upcoming page.
Free until launch
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens. What gold unlocks