Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
Strategy + Dark: a typical launch earns $323 in its first year
That is the median of 63 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 3 of 128 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 5.1 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 39% on the year before: 107 against 77.
- One game dominates the figure
- Price
- $323 median of 63 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- −27.1% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 107 77 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 274 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 598 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 0.09%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.05% to 0.13% | 16 ranked of 275 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #1,848 of 7,193pairs on this board |
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.
| 0.74xhits against expected | 0.52x to 1.28x | 128 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #4,457 of 6,324pairs on this board |
| Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. | Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 20 or more releases in each 12-month period. | |||
| Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. | Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 1,000 reviews in each window. | |||
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 128
- Hit rate
- 2.3%0.7% to 6.2%
- Expected rate
- 4.0%
- Against expected
- 0.74x0.52x to 1.28x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
128 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $0
- Median
- $404
- Top tenth
- $17,082
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- +39%
Parent tags
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
- Buckshot Roulette (opens the Steam store)2024 · 110,529 reviews, 95% positiveest. $6.4M
- Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance (opens the Steam store)2024 · 3,430 reviews, 82% positiveest. $2.7M
- Tenebris: Terra Incognita (opens the Steam store)2024 · 412 reviews, 79% positiveest. $167k
- Roots Devour (opens the Steam store)2026 · 479 reviews, 68% positiveest. $145k
- Chromosome Evil 2 (opens the Steam store)2023 · 252 reviews, 88% positiveest. $102k
- CD 2: Trap Master (opens the Steam store)2023 · 330 reviews, 79% positiveest. $100k
- SIDE EFFECTS (opens the Steam store)2025 · 866 reviews, 83% positiveest. $88k
- FEED THE AI (opens the Steam store)2026 · 581 reviews, 90% positiveest. $70k
More with Strategy
pairs with Strategy- Strategy + Roguelike Deckbuilder$8,599104 launches priced, 217 releases in 12 months
- Strategy + Base Building$6,139160 launches priced, 260 releases in 12 months
- Strategy + Turn-Based$5,85566 launches priced, 104 releases in 12 months
- Strategy + Historical$4,25980 launches priced, 157 releases in 12 months
- Strategy + Party-Based RPG$3,88255 launches priced, 102 releases in 12 months
- Strategy + Story Rich$3,64284 launches priced, 149 releases in 12 months
More with Dark
pairs with Dark- RPG + Dark$3,32642 launches priced, 68 releases in 12 months
- Dark + Female Protagonist$3,04831 launches priced, 31 releases in 12 months
- Dark + Supernatural$2,48942 launches priced, 63 releases in 12 months
- Story Rich + Dark$2,427120 launches priced, 161 releases in 12 months
- Dark + Choices Matter$2,30338 launches priced, 62 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Dark$1,85867 launches priced, 112 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
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