Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Capitalism + Incrementalabout 13 times expected at its prices14 in 100

1Capitalism + Incremental14 in 10050 launches 2Casual + Desktop Companion28 in 10047 launches 3Desktop Companion + Idler25 in 10064 launches 4Desktop Companion + Relaxing30 in 10043 launches 5Comedy + Memes10 in 10049 launches

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Without the breakout

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Drops the single biggest earner. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Without the breakout 30+ launches Reset

The Without the breakout lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 153 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Extraction Shooter, $68,810 typical. 263 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 109 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,738 launches. 263 match.

Hide one-hit markets50 out Hide small samples23 out

263 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.

Boxing 0 in 100 earned $100k+, from 52 launches at any price, Without the breakouttypical $809 Audience

Score Attack 1 in 63 earned $100k+, from 629 launches at any price, Without the breakouttypical $202. Best of the pins none

6DOF 0 in 100 earned $100k+, from 56 launches at any price, Without the breakouttypical $364 none

Genres at any price, Without the breakout, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, Without the breakoutthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 161,804 of 29,637	$606	not computed	29,637
1	Spellingnone of 107 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$273	not computed	107	none	Pin Spelling
2	Chessnone of 59 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$404	not computed	59	none	Pin Chess
3	6DOFnone of 56 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$364	not computed	56	none	Pinned 6DOF
4	Boxingnone of 52 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$809	not computed	52	Audience	Pinned Boxing
5	Basketballnone of 49 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$1,090	not computed	49	SmallAudience	Pin Basketball
6	Submarinenone of 39 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$725	not computed	39	Small	Pin Submarine
7	Mini Golfnone of 38 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$1,209	not computed	38	Small	Pin Mini Golf
8	Time Attacknone of 36 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$443	not computed	36	1-hitSmall	Pin Time Attack
9	Intentionally Awkward Controlsnone of 33 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$485	not computed	33	Small	Pin Intentionally Awkward Controls
10	Billiardsnone of 32 launches earned $100k+	0 in 100no hits	$281	not computed	32	Small	Pin Billiards
11	Solitaire1 in 210 earned $100k+, from 210 launches	1 in 2101 hit	$303	not computed	210	1-hitAudience	Pin Solitaire
12	Match 31 in 142 earned $100k+, from 283 launches	1 in 1422 hits	$121	not computed	283	1-hit	Pin Match 3
13	Trivia1 in 131 earned $100k+, from 131 launches	1 in 1311 hit	$161	not computed	131	none	Pin Trivia
14	Sokoban1 in 121 earned $100k+, from 243 launches	1 in 1212 hits	$404	not computed	243	Audience	Pin Sokoban
15	Traditional Roguelike1 in 108 earned $100k+, from 108 launches	1 in 1081 hit	$361	not computed	108	1-hitAudience	Pin Traditional Roguelike
16	Runner1 in 95 earned $100k+, from 569 launches	1 in 956 hits	$121	not computed	569	1-hit	Pin Runner
17	Hidden Object1 in 71 earned $100k+, from 1,766 launches	1 in 7125 hits	$541	not computed	1,766	none	Pin Hidden Object
18	3D Fighter1 in 69 earned $100k+, from 345 launches	1 in 695 hits	$202	not computed	345	none	Pin 3D Fighter
19	Snow1 in 65 earned $100k+, from 65 launches	1 in 651 hit	$607	not computed	65	none	Pin Snow
20	Precision Platformer1 in 63 earned $100k+, from 947 launches	1 in 6315 hits	$303	not computed	947	none	Pin Precision Platformer
21	Score Attack1 in 63 earned $100k+, from 629 launches	1 in 6310 hits	$202	not computed	629	none	Pinned Score Attack
22	Aliens1 in 58 earned $100k+, from 292 launches	1 in 585 hits	$242	not computed	292	none	Pin Aliens
23	Arena Shooter1 in 54 earned $100k+, from 542 launches	1 in 5410 hits	$252	not computed	542	Audience	Pin Arena Shooter
24	Golf1 in 54 earned $100k+, from 54 launches	1 in 541 hit	$707	not computed	54	1-hitAudience	Pin Golf
25	Combat Racing1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 196 launches	1 in 494 hits	$405	not computed	196	none	Pin Combat Racing

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 263 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.