Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Free pages give every genre's plain odds. Gold names the tag pairs that beat them at your price, marks the ones that may be luck, and lists who earned the most. Everything gold is free until launch.
Showing Cozy at $10 to $20. Change the genre or price in the bar above.
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The answer Out of 100 launches at $10 to $20, how many earned $100k+ in their first year?
Casual + Cozy at $10 to $20: 55 in 100 launches earned $100k+ in their first year, about 3 times as often as all games at $10 to $20 (19 in 100) and 23% more often than Cozy at $10 to $20 (45 in 100). Over the luck line, so it is unlikely to be chance.
For Cozy at $10 to $20, the genre and price in the bar above. The three gold cards are the real ones from the Home, Genre, Niche and Idea check pages: click one to open it with the Vault doors. Free until launch, nothing to pay.
Expected 19 in 100 at this priceFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFigures $10 to $20Free until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewEstimated lifetime grossFree until launch
Needs accounts or daily dataLater
Free until launch one click opens it, for everyone, until launch. Later needs accounts, or the daily data collected since 30 Sep (first readings 13 Oct). Every lens is already open, in the lens check row on every card.
Plain odds are true but blunt. These four counts are why gold exists. Each says what it counts and out of what.
earn $100k+ in their first year over twice as often as games at the same prices, and more often than the 1 in 16 for all indie launches.
Base: every tag pair with 40+ launches.
Best niches names them, with the luck line marked.
are one-hit markets: one game holds over half the money. In Trading Card Game, TCG Card Shop Simulator holds 93%.
Base: every genre with 100+ launches.
Spotlight flags them before you commit.
change typical first-year earnings by over 10% in the West-facing view (games mostly reviewed outside China). FMV: $10,510 becomes $4,855.
Base: every genre with 100+ launches.
The West-facing view shows the market you would sell to.
change their odds by over 25% on launches from the last 18 months. Time Management: 1 in 14 becomes 1 in 28.
Base: genres with 100+ launches and 10+ hits in both views.
Last 18 months shows where the market is now.
From 29,637 indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, figures of 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first-year revenue of $100k or more. Each bar is the count out of its base, one cell per 2%.
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Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.