Idea check: your odds for a game idea

1Your idea

2The readout

Example

26 in 100 Roguelike Deckbuilder launches at $10 to $20 earned $100k+ in their first year. That is better than the 19 in 100 for all indie launches at $10 to $20: about 1.4 times the rate.

Chance of $100k+

26 in 100

Notch: 19 in 100 for all indie launches at $10 to $20.

Typical first year

$33,382

33% of the way to $100k. Half earned less. Notch: $9,226, every game at $10 to $20.

Competition

124 launches

At $10 to $20, in two years (about 62 a year). Busier than 66 in 100 single tags; the notch is the middle one.

Coming soon

782 games

Coming-soon games with this tag. More than 65 in 100 single tags. Highest on wishlists: Drill Keeper (#561), GET YOKED: Extreme Bodybuilding (#1,369).

What launches like this earned in their first year

The $100k line sits between the typical launch and the top quarter.

Typical launchHalf earned less$33,38233% of the way to $100k.

Top quarter1 in 4 earned at least$105,652Just past the $100k line.

Top tenth1 in 10 earned at least$558,5835.6 times the $100k line.

Roguelike Deckbuilder at $10 to $20 past the $100k line (squeezed to fit, not to scale) every game at $10 to $20

Warning lamps

1 of 5 lit

One-hit marketLit
Slay the Spire 2 earned 67% of all the money. Read the typical figure, not the hits.
Audience splitOff
Clear.
Small sampleOff
Clear.
May be luckOff
Clear.
Changed recentlyOff
Clear.

Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.

Standard, West-facing view, Without the breakout, Last 18 months. Lenses use all prices.

Earnings are estimated from store reviews, so the $100k line is soft: across the estimate's range, the share of all indie launches above it runs from about 5 to 8 in 100.

Indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, measured 1 Oct 2026. Coming-soon counts from the store, 30 Sep 2026.

3What next

Monthly read

Free

A monthly read on Roguelike Deckbuilder

Once a month we re-measure your odds at $10 to $20 and tell you in plain words what changed.

Your odds, re-measured on the latest launches
How last month's launches with these tags did
Who is about to launch, highest on wishlists first

If the read went out today 1 Oct 2026

Your odds26 in 100 earned $100k+ at $10 to $20, against 19 in 100 for all indie launches at $10 to $20.
EarningsTypical first year $33,382; 1 in 10 earned $558,583 or more.
Launches282 games of every kind with these tags in the last 12 months (158 the year before).
Coming soon782 games; highest on wishlists Drill Keeper (#561).

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Comparables

Lifetime

Top earners with these tags, est. lifetime grossFree until launch

Slay the Spire 2launched 2026, 185,361 reviews$73.2M

1Slay the Spire 2$73.2M2026

2Balatro$46.2M2024

39 Kings$8.4M2025

4Backpack Battles$4.8M2024

5Monster Train 2$3.9M2025

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockLifetime top earners like yours

4Data notes

Odds and earnings: Wave-a figures, generated 1 Oct 2026: 29,637 indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old (majors, $40+, adult and free games out). A hit is an estimated first-year revenue of $100k or more. "Typical" is the median; "top quarter" is the 75th percentile and "top tenth" the 90th.
Tags and combinations: 329 tags (genres and descriptors such as 2D and Casual), 5,145 tag pairs and 9,720 three-tag combinations. Pairs and triples are only in the data with 40 or more launches, so a missing one has fewer than 40; the exact count is not stored.
Price band rates: under $5: 1 in 200 (15,379 launches); $5 to $10: 1 in 26 (8,218 launches); $10 to $20: 19 in 100 (4,810 launches); $20 to $40: 42 in 100 (1,230 launches). All prices: 1 in 16. With "Any price", the comparison is all indie launches.
Gauges: Competition places the pick among combinations of the same size (single tags, pairs or triples) at the same price; coming soon places single tags and pairs among all genres and niches. The notch is the middle one. Earnings notches show every game at the price.
Lamps: One-hit market: one game holds over half the money, or dropping it moves the chance over 25%. Audience split: the West-facing view (games mostly reviewed outside China) moves typical earnings over 10% or the chance over 25%. Small sample: under 30 launches. May be luck: the gap to the base rate is inside what chance produces 95 times in 100 (a two-sided binomial test). Changed recently: launches from the last 18 months move the chance over 25%, or there are under 10 of them.
Lens check: Computed on all-price figures (by-price lens figures are not computed yet). Standard is the yardstick and is not counted. Three-tag combinations carry no lenses yet, so their pips stay grey.
Competition: Launches in the two-year sample. Coming-soon counts for tags and pairs come from the nightly niche rollup (30 Sep 2026); for three tags, from the coming-soon list, which stores only each game's top five tags, so the count is a floor. Named games are the highest on wishlists; adult-tagged games are left out.
Comparables: The top indie earners stored for these tags, with estimated lifetime gross (not first year). Three-tag combinations have none stored, so the card shows the most specific readable pair inside and says so. Matching by price and launch year is not computed yet.
Soft estimate: Revenue is reviews times a multiplier times price. Across the multiplier's range the overall base rate runs 4.8% to 8.4%, so every readout carries that note.