Best niches
All pricesPairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewTicker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Genres 3 Oct
Of 187 genres with 30+ launches at any price, Last 18 months, 114 beat the 1 in 17 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 219 under $5, 40 in 100 at $20 to $40.114 of 187 genres beat the 1 in 17 base rate.114 beat the base rate.
Cohort median $540
Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.
Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.
Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewThe Last 18 months lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.
187 of 256 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Last 18 months. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.
| Rank# | Genre | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at any price, Last 18 monthsthe base rate: the row to beat | 1 in 171,546 of 26,280 | $540 | not computed | 26,280 | |||
| 1 | Aliensnone of 72 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $171 | not computed | 72 | none | Pin Aliens |
| 2 | Space Simnone of 63 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $192 | not computed | 63 | none | Pin Space Sim |
| 3 | Solitairenone of 51 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $191 | not computed | 51 | 1-hitAudience | Pin Solitaire |
| 4 | Battle Royalenone of 35 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $383 | not computed | 35 | SmallAudience | Pin Battle Royale |
| 5 | Score Attack1 in 168 earned $100k+, from 168 launches | 1 in 1681 hit | $230 | not computed | 168 | none | Pin Score Attack |
| 6 | Arena Shooter1 in 130 earned $100k+, from 130 launches | 1 in 1301 hit | $306 | not computed | 130 | none | Pin Arena Shooter |
| 7 | Demons1 in 81 earned $100k+, from 81 launches | 1 in 811 hit | $574 | not computed | 81 | none | Pin Demons |
| 8 | Text-Based1 in 78 earned $100k+, from 155 launches | 1 in 782 hits | $574 | not computed | 155 | Audience | Pin Text-Based |
| 9 | Grid-Based Movement1 in 72 earned $100k+, from 72 launches | 1 in 721 hit | $517 | not computed | 72 | none | Pin Grid-Based Movement |
| 10 | Sokoban1 in 65 earned $100k+, from 65 launches | 1 in 651 hit | $383 | not computed | 65 | none | Pin Sokoban |
| 11 | Precision Platformer1 in 62 earned $100k+, from 248 launches | 1 in 624 hits | $229 | not computed | 248 | none | Pin Precision Platformer |
| 12 | Mystery Dungeon1 in 61 earned $100k+, from 61 launches | 1 in 611 hit | $306 | not computed | 61 | none | Pin Mystery Dungeon |
| 13 | Word Game1 in 57 earned $100k+, from 114 launches | 1 in 572 hits | $574 | not computed | 114 | Audience | Pin Word Game |
| 14 | Top-Down Shooter1 in 57 earned $100k+, from 226 launches | 1 in 574 hits | $266 | not computed | 226 | none | Pin Top-Down Shooter |
| 15 | Hidden Object1 in 52 earned $100k+, from 466 launches | 1 in 529 hits | $455 | not computed | 466 | none | Pin Hidden Object |
| 16 | Artificial Intelligence1 in 51 earned $100k+, from 51 launches | 1 in 511 hit | $286 | not computed | 51 | none | Pin Artificial Intelligence |
| 17 | Dystopian 1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 49 launches | 1 in 491 hit | $383 | not computed | 49 | Small | Pin Dystopian |
| 18 | Puzzle Platformer1 in 47 earned $100k+, from 329 launches | 1 in 477 hits | $228 | not computed | 329 | none | Pin Puzzle Platformer |
| 19 | Runner1 in 45 earned $100k+, from 135 launches | 1 in 453 hits | $115 | not computed | 135 | none | Pin Runner |
| 20 | 2D Fighter1 in 40 earned $100k+, from 120 launches | 1 in 403 hits | $76 | not computed | 120 | none | Pin 2D Fighter |
| 21 | Comic Book1 in 40 earned $100k+, from 79 launches | 1 in 402 hits | $286 | not computed | 79 | none | Pin Comic Book |
| 22 | Shoot 'Em Up1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 233 launches | 1 in 396 hits | $229 | not computed | 233 | none | Pin Shoot 'Em Up |
| 23 | Flight1 in 39 earned $100k+, from 77 launches | 1 in 392 hits | $287 | not computed | 77 | Audience | Pin Flight |
| 24 | Incremental1 in 36 earned $100k+, from 394 launches | 1 in 3611 hits | $247 | not computed | 394 | none | Pin Incremental |
| 25 | Match 31 in 36 earned $100k+, from 71 launches | 1 in 362 hits | $96 | not computed | 71 | 1-hitAudience | Pin Match 3 |
Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.