Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Genres 3 Oct
Of 253 genres with 30+ launches at any price, West-facing view, 137 beat the 1 in 17 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 219 under $5, 40 in 100 at $20 to $40.137 of 253 genres beat the 1 in 17 base rate.137 beat the base rate.
Cohort median $540
Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.
Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.
Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewThe West-facing view lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.
253 of 256 genres have 30+ launches at any price, West-facing view. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.
| Rank# | Genre | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at any price, West-facing viewthe base rate: the row to beat | 1 in 171,546 of 26,280 | $540 | not computed | 26,280 | |||
| 1 | 6DOFnone of 67 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $213 | not computed | 67 | none | Pin 6DOF |
| 2 | Chessnone of 50 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $383 | not computed | 50 | none | Pin Chess |
| 3 | Basketballnone of 38 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $1,688 | not computed | 38 | SmallAudience | Pin Basketball |
| 4 | Intentionally Awkward Controlsnone of 31 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $376 | not computed | 31 | Small | Pin Intentionally Awkward Controls |
| 5 | Match 31 in 278 earned $100k+, from 278 launches | 1 in 2781 hit | $141 | not computed | 278 | 1-hitAudience | Pin Match 3 |
| 6 | Solitaire1 in 186 earned $100k+, from 186 launches | 1 in 1861 hit | $313 | not computed | 186 | 1-hitAudience | Pin Solitaire |
| 7 | Sokoban1 in 114 earned $100k+, from 228 launches | 1 in 1142 hits | $421 | not computed | 228 | none | Pin Sokoban |
| 8 | Spelling1 in 90 earned $100k+, from 90 launches | 1 in 901 hit | $249 | not computed | 90 | none | Pin Spelling |
| 9 | Precision Platformer1 in 87 earned $100k+, from 869 launches | 1 in 8710 hits | $239 | not computed | 869 | none | Pin Precision Platformer |
| 10 | Hidden Object1 in 83 earned $100k+, from 1,584 launches | 1 in 8319 hits | $548 | not computed | 1,584 | none | Pin Hidden Object |
| 11 | Score Attack1 in 79 earned $100k+, from 554 launches | 1 in 797 hits | $213 | not computed | 554 | none | Pin Score Attack |
| 12 | Runner1 in 73 earned $100k+, from 513 launches | 1 in 737 hits | $101 | not computed | 513 | none | Pin Runner |
| 13 | Aliens1 in 66 earned $100k+, from 262 launches | 1 in 664 hits | $264 | not computed | 262 | none | Pin Aliens |
| 14 | 3D Fighter1 in 61 earned $100k+, from 303 launches | 1 in 615 hits | $157 | not computed | 303 | none | Pin 3D Fighter |
| 15 | Assassins1 in 57 earned $100k+, from 57 launches | 1 in 571 hit | $230 | not computed | 57 | 1-hit | Pin Assassins |
| 16 | Logic1 in 54 earned $100k+, from 870 launches | 1 in 5416 hits | $340 | not computed | 870 | none | Pin Logic |
| 17 | Trivia1 in 52 earned $100k+, from 105 launches | 1 in 522 hits | $155 | not computed | 105 | Audience | Pin Trivia |
| 18 | Puzzle Platformer1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 1,085 launches | 1 in 4922 hits | $226 | not computed | 1,085 | none | Pin Puzzle Platformer |
| 19 | Incremental1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 977 launches | 1 in 4920 hits | $286 | not computed | 977 | none | Pin Incremental |
| 20 | Shoot 'Em Up1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 874 launches | 1 in 4918 hits | $283 | not computed | 874 | none | Pin Shoot 'Em Up |
| 21 | Bullet Time1 in 46 earned $100k+, from 93 launches | 1 in 462 hits | $401 | not computed | 93 | none | Pin Bullet Time |
| 22 | Arcade1 in 44 earned $100k+, from 3,558 launches | 1 in 4480 hits | $230 | not computed | 3,558 | none | Pin Arcade |
| 23 | Time Manipulation1 in 44 earned $100k+, from 87 launches | 1 in 442 hits | $807 | not computed | 87 | none | Pin Time Manipulation |
| 24 | Arena Shooter1 in 43 earned $100k+, from 515 launches | 1 in 4312 hits | $269 | not computed | 515 | none | Pin Arena Shooter |
| 25 | Combat Racing1 in 43 earned $100k+, from 170 launches | 1 in 434 hits | $403 | not computed | 170 | none | Pin Combat Racing |
Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.