Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Genres 1 Oct
Of 264 genres with 30+ launches at any price, West-facing view, 154 beat the 1 in 16 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 192 under $5, 42 in 100 at $20 to $40.154 of 264 genres beat the 1 in 16 base rate.154 beat the base rate.
Cohort median $606
Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.
Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.
Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewThe West-facing view lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.
264 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at any price, West-facing view. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.
| Rank# | Genre | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at any price, West-facing viewthe base rate: the row to beat | 1 in 161,804 of 29,637 | $606 | not computed | 29,637 | |||
| 1 | Chessnone of 60 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $404 | not computed | 60 | none | Pin Chess |
| 2 | 6DOFnone of 57 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $364 | not computed | 57 | none | Pin 6DOF |
| 3 | Mini Golfnone of 39 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $1,209 | not computed | 39 | Small | Pin Mini Golf |
| 4 | Intentionally Awkward Controlsnone of 34 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $485 | not computed | 34 | Small | Pin Intentionally Awkward Controls |
| 5 | Billiardsnone of 31 launches earned $100k+ | 0 in 100no hits | $281 | not computed | 31 | Small | Pin Billiards |
| 6 | Match 31 in 131 earned $100k+, from 261 launches | 1 in 1312 hits | $121 | not computed | 261 | 1-hit | Pin Match 3 |
| 7 | Spelling1 in 103 earned $100k+, from 103 launches | 1 in 1031 hit | $303 | not computed | 103 | none | Pin Spelling |
| 8 | Solitaire1 in 97 earned $100k+, from 193 launches | 1 in 972 hits | $364 | not computed | 193 | 1-hitAudience | Pin Solitaire |
| 9 | Runner1 in 79 earned $100k+, from 553 launches | 1 in 797 hits | $121 | not computed | 553 | 1-hit | Pin Runner |
| 10 | Sokoban1 in 78 earned $100k+, from 234 launches | 1 in 783 hits | $485 | not computed | 234 | Audience | Pin Sokoban |
| 11 | Hidden Object1 in 69 earned $100k+, from 1,721 launches | 1 in 6925 hits | $545 | not computed | 1,721 | none | Pin Hidden Object |
| 12 | Precision Platformer1 in 67 earned $100k+, from 935 launches | 1 in 6714 hits | $303 | not computed | 935 | none | Pin Precision Platformer |
| 13 | 3D Fighter1 in 66 earned $100k+, from 330 launches | 1 in 665 hits | $202 | not computed | 330 | none | Pin 3D Fighter |
| 14 | Trivia1 in 61 earned $100k+, from 121 launches | 1 in 612 hits | $200 | not computed | 121 | none | Pin Trivia |
| 15 | Score Attack1 in 57 earned $100k+, from 622 launches | 1 in 5711 hits | $202 | not computed | 622 | none | Pin Score Attack |
| 16 | Shoot 'Em Up1 in 53 earned $100k+, from 908 launches | 1 in 5317 hits | $282 | not computed | 908 | none | Pin Shoot 'Em Up |
| 17 | Boxing1 in 51 earned $100k+, from 51 launches | 1 in 511 hit | $890 | not computed | 51 | Audience | Pin Boxing |
| 18 | Traditional Roguelike1 in 50 earned $100k+, from 100 launches | 1 in 502 hits | $324 | not computed | 100 | 1-hitAudience | Pin Traditional Roguelike |
| 19 | Arena Shooter1 in 49 earned $100k+, from 540 launches | 1 in 4911 hits | $282 | not computed | 540 | Audience | Pin Arena Shooter |
| 20 | Basketball1 in 48 earned $100k+, from 48 launches | 1 in 481 hit | $1,819 | not computed | 48 | SmallAudience | Pin Basketball |
| 21 | Aliens1 in 48 earned $100k+, from 286 launches | 1 in 486 hits | $243 | not computed | 286 | none | Pin Aliens |
| 22 | Logic1 in 44 earned $100k+, from 969 launches | 1 in 4422 hits | $322 | not computed | 969 | none | Pin Logic |
| 23 | Arcade1 in 41 earned $100k+, from 4,022 launches | 1 in 4197 hits | $243 | not computed | 4,022 | none | Pin Arcade |
| 24 | Submarine1 in 40 earned $100k+, from 40 launches | 1 in 401 hit | $728 | not computed | 40 | Small | Pin Submarine |
| 25 | On-Rails Shooter1 in 40 earned $100k+, from 79 launches | 1 in 402 hits | $443 | not computed | 79 | none | Pin On-Rails Shooter |
Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.