Genres

Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

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191,514
on 30 Sep 2026

Genres 1 Oct

Of 166 genres with 30+ launches at $10 to $20, 89 beat the 19 in 100 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 192 under $5, 42 in 100 at $20 to $40.89 of 166 genres beat the 19 in 100 base rate.89 beat the base rate.

Cohort median $606

Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

The genre list

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Now: FMV, 47 in 100. 166 match.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: FMV, 47 in 100. 125 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: FMV, $81,191 typical. 166 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Now: Crime, $1.5M top 1 in 10. 129 match.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Cozy, 45 in 100. 45 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Simulation, 1,006 launches. 166 match.
Hide one-hit markets21 outHide small samples37 out

166 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at $10 to $20. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.

miningNot in this view: under 30 launches at $10 to $20.
Class-Based 19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 32 launches at $10 to $20typical $6,050 Small
Base Building 29 in 100 earned $100k+, from 231 launches at $10 to $20typical $28,409. Best of the pins none
Genres at $10 to $20, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#GenreChance of $100k+Typical yearTop 1 in 10LaunchesMarkersPin
All games at $10 to $20the base rate: the row to beat 19 in 100893 of 4,810 $9,226$248,075 4,810
1 1 in 41 earned $100k+, from 41 launches 1 in 411 hit $3,886 $50,242 41 Small Pin Aliens
2 1 in 22 earned $100k+, from 43 launches 1 in 222 hits $1,942 $28,837 43 Small Pin Incremental
3 1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 55 launches 1 in 183 hits $5,767 $65,499 55 1-hit Pin 4 Player Local
4 1 in 18 earned $100k+, from 35 launches 1 in 182 hits $3,157 $36,432 35 Small Pin Combat Racing
5 1 in 17 earned $100k+, from 186 launches 1 in 1711 hits $3,238 $49,782 186 none Pin VR
6 1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 49 launches 1 in 163 hits $6,071 $71,625 49 Small Pin Dialogue Heavy
7 1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 118 launches 1 in 158 hits $5,342 $79,529 118 Audience Pin Text-Based
8 1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 44 launches 1 in 153 hits $4,228 $64,656 44 SmallAudience Pin Mystery Dungeon
9 1 in 15 earned $100k+, from 189 launches 1 in 1513 hits $1,619 $50,242 189 none Pin Hidden Object
10 1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 123 launches 1 in 149 hits $6,071 $67,084 123 none Pin Magic
11 1 in 13 earned $100k+, from 141 launches 1 in 1311 hits $5,584 $86,922 141 Audience Pin Party-Based RPG
12 1 in 12 earned $100k+, from 137 launches 1 in 1211 hits $7,222 $71,244 137 Audience Pin Puzzle Platformer
13 1 in 12 earned $100k+, from 35 launches 1 in 123 hits $607 $97,151 35 1-hitSmall Pin Match 3
14 1 in 12 earned $100k+, from 46 launches 1 in 124 hits $1,418 $64,049 46 Small Pin 3D Fighter
15 1 in 10 earned $100k+, from 115 launches 1 in 1011 hits $6,071 $89,850 115 none Pin Board Game
16 1 in 10 earned $100k+, from 51 launches 1 in 105 hits $2,429 $97,151 51 Audience Pin Space Sim
17 10 in 100 earned $100k+, from 30 launches 10 in 1003 hits $3,885 $114,321 30 Small Pin Party Game
18 10 in 100 earned $100k+, from 30 launches 10 in 1003 hits $5,827 $126,276 30 SmallAudience Pin Sokoban
19 10 in 100 earned $100k+, from 59 launches 10 in 1006 hits $8,096 $105,652 59 1-hit Pin Grand Strategy
20 10 in 100 earned $100k+, from 181 launches 10 in 10019 hits $5,767 $101,418 181 none Pin JRPG
21 11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 75 launches 11 in 1008 hits $6,477 $114,321 75 none Pin Tabletop
22 11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 384 launches 11 in 10041 hits $3,643 $106,057 384 none Pin Arcade
23 Score Attack11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 55 launches 11 in 1006 hits $3,116 $144,500 55 none Pin Score Attack

11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 55 launches at $10 to $20. That is about 0.6 times the base rate.

Base rate at $10 to $20: 19 in 100 (893 of 4,810 launches earned $100k+).

Typical first year $3,116; the top 1 in 10 earned at least $144,500.

Lens check, all pricesHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

No warning markers: no single game holds half the money, the sample is 50+ launches and the audience split is small.

Chance of $100k+ at every price (Standard lens)
PriceChanceLaunchesTypical
All prices1 in 57630$202
Under $50 in 100427$120
$5 to $101 in 47142$566
$10 to $2011 in 10055$3,116
$20 to $40too fewunder 10

Grey: under 30 launches at that price, written as a count. Odds compare best within one price.

Best tag pairs inside, at $10 to $20

Open genre pageCheck this idea
24 11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 208 launches 11 in 10023 hits $3,157 $156,119 208 none Pin 3D Platformer
25 12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 43 launches 12 in 1005 hits $13,839 $110,510 43 Small Pin Grid-Based Movement
Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 166 genres
green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.