Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Genres 3 Oct
Of 156 genres with 30+ launches at $10 to $20, 77 beat the 18 in 100 base rate. Price moves the odds most: 1 in 219 under $5, 40 in 100 at $20 to $40.77 of 156 genres beat the 18 in 100 base rate.77 beat the base rate.
Typical launch, all prices, first year $540
Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.
Indie paid Steam launches 12 to 36 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.
Pairs with the best chance of $100k+, above the base rateFree until launch
156 of 256 genres have 30+ launches at $10 to $20. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.
| Rank# | Genre | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at $10 to $20the base rate: the row to beat | 18 in 100758 of 4,301 | $8,234 | $217,858 | 4,301 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Aliens1 of 37 launches earned $100k+ | 1 of 371 hit | $4,516 | $84,277 | 37 | Small | Pin Aliens | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | 4 Player Local2 of 49 launches earned $100k+ | 2 of 492 hits | $4,022 | $41,962 | 49 | Small | Pin 4 Player Local | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | VR1 in 24 earned $100k+, from 195 launches | 1 in 248 hits | $2,650 | $33,643 | 195 | none | Pin VR | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 in 24 earned $100k+, from 195 launches at $10 to $20. That is about 0.2 times the base rate. Base rate at $10 to $20: 18 in 100 (758 of 4,301 launches earned $100k+). Typical first year $2,650; the top 1 in 10 earned at least $33,643. Lens check, all pricesChanged recently. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer. No warning markers: no single game holds half the money, the sample is 50+ launches and the West-facing view does not move the answer.
Grey: under 30 launches or 5 hits at that price, written as a count. Odds compare best within one price. Best tag pairs inside, at $10 to $20
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| 4 | Hidden Object1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 173 launches | 1 in 199 hits | $1,532 | $41,277 | 173 | none | Pin Hidden Object | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Mystery Dungeon2 of 38 launches earned $100k+ | 2 of 382 hits | $2,854 | $42,492 | 38 | Small | Pin Mystery Dungeon | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Puzzle Platformer1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 131 launches | 1 in 197 hits | $4,322 | $51,139 | 131 | Audience | Pin Puzzle Platformer | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Grand Strategy3 of 52 launches earned $100k+ | 3 of 523 hits | $4,706 | $53,415 | 52 | 1-hit | Pin Grand Strategy | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Match 32 of 34 launches earned $100k+ | 2 of 342 hits | $878 | $87,556 | 34 | 1-hitSmall | Pinned Match 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Party-Based RPG1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 127 launches | 1 in 168 hits | $5,899 | $72,146 | 127 | none | Pin Party-Based RPG | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Score Attack3 of 44 launches earned $100k+ | 3 of 443 hits | $1,916 | $78,687 | 44 | Small | Pinned Score Attack | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Dialogue Heavy3 of 42 launches earned $100k+ | 3 of 423 hits | $7,089 | $56,658 | 42 | Small | Pin Dialogue Heavy | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Text-Based1 in 14 earned $100k+, from 97 launches | 1 in 147 hits | $5,940 | $71,081 | 97 | none | Pin Text-Based | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Incremental3 of 38 launches earned $100k+ | 3 of 383 hits | $1,620 | $96,704 | 38 | Small | Pin Incremental | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | Grid-Based Movement3 of 37 launches earned $100k+ | 3 of 373 hits | $6,713 | $81,785 | 37 | Small | Pin Grid-Based Movement | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | Precision Platformer1 in 12 earned $100k+, from 84 launches | 1 in 127 hits | $7,998 | $93,344 | 84 | Audience | Pin Precision Platformer | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | Otome3 of 36 launches earned $100k+ | 3 of 363 hits | $5,047 | $95,100 | 36 | Small | Pin Otome | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | 3D Platformer1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 180 launches | 1 in 1116 hits | $2,672 | $85,014 | 180 | none | Pin 3D Platformer | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | CRPG1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 55 launches | 1 in 115 hits | $6,802 | $97,006 | 55 | Audience | Pin CRPG | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | Sports1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 152 launches | 1 in 1114 hits | $4,390 | $72,554 | 152 | none | Pin Sports | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | Logic1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 97 launches | 1 in 119 hits | $4,980 | $91,942 | 97 | Audience | Pin Logic | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 21 | Action RTS4 of 43 launches earned $100k+ | 4 of 434 hits | $8,302 | $89,623 | 43 | 1-hitSmall | Pin Action RTS | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 22 | JRPG1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 171 launches | 1 in 1116 hits | $4,022 | $93,788 | 171 | 1-hitAudience | Pin JRPG | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 23 | Magic1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 127 launches | 1 in 1112 hits | $4,259 | $99,462 | 127 | none | Pin Magic | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 24 | Space Sim4 of 42 launches earned $100k+ | 4 of 424 hits | $3,160 | $67,771 | 42 | Small | Pin Space Sim | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 25 | Tactical RPG10 in 100 earned $100k+, from 117 launches | 10 in 10012 hits | $8,618 | $103,323 | 117 | none | Pin Tactical RPG | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Under 30 launches or 5 hits a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.