Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 1 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

$10 to $20

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Casual + Cozyabout 3.0 times the 19 in 100 base rate55 in 100

1Casual + Cozy55 in 10058 launches 2FMV + Interactive Fiction53 in 10032 launches 3Building + Life Sim53 in 10032 launches 4Adventure + Cozy52 in 10031 launches 5Cozy + Relaxing49 in 10063 launches

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 16 hit $100k+Under $51 in 200 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 26 hit $100k+$10 to $2019 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4042 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 29,637 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 30+ launches

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Now: FMV, 47 in 100. 166 match.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: FMV, 47 in 100. 125 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: FMV, $81,191 typical. 166 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Now: Crime, $1.5M top 1 in 10. 129 match.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Cozy, 45 in 100. 45 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Simulation, 1,006 launches. 166 match.

Hide one-hit markets12 out Hide small samples19 out Beats the base rate+77 if off

166 of 266 genres have 30+ launches at $10 to $20. 89 match the search and chips. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.

asynchronous-multiplayerNot in this view: under 30 launches at $10 to $20.

programmingNot in this view: under 30 launches at $10 to $20.

Collectathon 19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 133 launches at $10 to $20typical $10,928. Best of the pins 1-hit

Genres at $10 to $20, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at $10 to $20the base rate: the row to beat	19 in 100893 of 4,810	$9,226	$248,075	4,810
1	Alternate History19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 43 launches	19 in 1008 hits	$9,714	$142,489	43	SmallAudience	Pin Alternate History
2	Class-Based19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 32 launches	19 in 1006 hits	$6,050	$403,415	32	Small	Pin Class-Based
3	Collectathon19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 133 launches	19 in 10025 hits	$10,928	$227,091	133	1-hit	Pinned Collectathon
4	Dating Sim19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 185 launches	19 in 10035 hits	$7,891	$237,886	185	Audience	Pin Dating Sim
5	Action RPG19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 297 launches	19 in 10057 hits	$8,741	$235,997	297	none	Pin Action RPG
6	Time Management19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 176 launches	19 in 10034 hits	$6,798	$184,557	176	none	Pin Time Management
7	Top-Down Shooter19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 88 launches	19 in 10017 hits	$7,892	$271,766	88	Audience	Pin Top-Down Shooter
8	RTS19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 119 launches	19 in 10023 hits	$13,660	$281,739	119	Audience	Pin RTS
9	Rhythm19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 62 launches	19 in 10012 hits	$17,001	$385,809	62	none	Pin Rhythm
10	Flight19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 67 launches	19 in 10013 hits	$4,453	$132,576	67	none	Pin Flight
11	Shooter20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 394 launches	20 in 10077 hits	$8,418	$319,385	394	Audience	Pin Shooter
12	Psychological Horror20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 228 launches	20 in 10045 hits	$16,691	$233,568	228	none	Pin Psychological Horror
13	Zombies20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 81 launches	20 in 10016 hits	$5,849	$369,985	81	Audience	Pin Zombies
14	Horror20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 397 launches	20 in 10079 hits	$10,460	$242,848	397	none	Pin Horror
15	Survival Horror20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 135 launches	20 in 10027 hits	$15,866	$187,016	135	none	Pin Survival Horror
16	Mechs20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 35 launches	20 in 1007 hits	$22,580	$265,301	35	Small	Pin Mechs
17	Colony Sim20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 74 launches	20 in 10015 hits	$16,148	$281,739	74	none	Pin Colony Sim
18	War21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 58 launches	21 in 10012 hits	$12,140	$189,382	58	none	Pin War
19	Auto Battler21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 72 launches	21 in 10015 hits	$22,688	$233,428	72	none	Pin Auto Battler
20	Mythology21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 52 launches	21 in 10011 hits	$14,570	$470,375	52	1-hit	Pin Mythology
21	Parkour21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 33 launches	21 in 1007 hits	$17,001	$574,312	33	SmallAudience	Pin Parkour
22	Simulation21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,006 launches	21 in 100216 hits	$14,573	$294,876	1,006	none	Pin Simulation
23	Souls-like21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 121 launches	21 in 10026 hits	$18,695	$286,515	121	none	Pin Souls-like
24	Job Simulator22 in 100 earned $100k+, from 37 launches	22 in 1008 hits	$24,647	$267,122	37	Small	Pin Job Simulator
25	Third-Person Shooter22 in 100 earned $100k+, from 106 launches	22 in 10023 hits	$3,035	$471,994	106	none	Pin Third-Person Shooter

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 89 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.