Best niches
$10 to $20Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch
Building + Life Simabout 3.2 times the 18 in 100 base rate57 in 100
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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds
Genres
Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.
Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.
The genre list
Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Now: Shop Keeper, 49 in 100. 156 match.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: FMV, 48 in 100. 82 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Shop Keeper, $92,344 typical. 156 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Now: Co-op, $774k top 1 in 10. 118 match.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Cozy, 44 in 100. 38 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Simulation, 876 launches. 156 match.
156 of 256 genres have 30+ launches at $10 to $20. 95 match the search and chips. Sorted by chance of $100k+, lowest first.
Arcade
10 in 100
earned $100k+, from 346 launches at $10 to $20typical $3,292. Best of the pins
none
| Rank# | Genre | Chance of $100k+ | Typical year | Top 1 in 10 | Launches | Markers | Pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games at $10 to $20the base rate: the row to beat | 18 in 100758 of 4,301 | $8,234 | $217,858 | 4,301 | |||
| 1 | 4 Player Local1 in 25 earned $100k+, from 49 launches | 1 in 252 hits | $4,022 | $41,962 | 49 | Small | Pin 4 Player Local |
| 2 | Puzzle Platformer1 in 19 earned $100k+, from 131 launches | 1 in 197 hits | $4,322 | $51,139 | 131 | none | Pin Puzzle Platformer |
| 3 | Party-Based RPG1 in 16 earned $100k+, from 127 launches | 1 in 168 hits | $5,899 | $72,146 | 127 | Audience | Pin Party-Based RPG |
| 4 | Precision Platformer1 in 12 earned $100k+, from 84 launches | 1 in 127 hits | $7,998 | $93,344 | 84 | none | Pin Precision Platformer |
| 5 | 3D Platformer1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 180 launches | 1 in 1116 hits | $2,672 | $85,014 | 180 | none | Pin 3D Platformer |
| 6 | CRPG1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 55 launches | 1 in 115 hits | $6,802 | $97,006 | 55 | Audience | Pin CRPG |
| 7 | JRPG1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 171 launches | 1 in 1116 hits | $4,022 | $93,788 | 171 | 1-hitAudience | Pin JRPG |
| 8 | Magic1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 127 launches | 1 in 1112 hits | $4,259 | $99,462 | 127 | none | Pin Magic |
| 9 | Tactical RPG10 in 100 earned $100k+, from 117 launches | 10 in 10012 hits | $8,618 | $103,323 | 117 | none | Pin Tactical RPG |
| 10 | Supernatural11 in 100 earned $100k+, from 38 launches | 11 in 1004 hits | $15,236 | $104,331 | 38 | Small | Pin Supernatural |
| 11 | Romance12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 170 launches | 12 in 10020 hits | $7,090 | $119,162 | 170 | none | Pin Romance |
| 12 | Thriller12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 50 launches | 12 in 1006 hits | $9,115 | $113,701 | 50 | none | Pin Thriller |
| 13 | Shoot 'Em Up12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 106 launches | 12 in 10013 hits | $5,630 | $189,234 | 106 | none | Pin Shoot 'Em Up |
| 14 | Board Game12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 97 launches | 12 in 10012 hits | $3,677 | $141,651 | 97 | none | Pin Board Game |
| 15 | Puzzle12 in 100 earned $100k+, from 686 launches | 12 in 10085 hits | $3,798 | $130,392 | 686 | none | Pin Puzzle |
| 16 | Visual Novel13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 434 launches | 13 in 10055 hits | $7,469 | $149,635 | 434 | none | Pin Visual Novel |
| 17 | Real Time Tactics13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 115 launches | 13 in 10015 hits | $3,677 | $145,060 | 115 | Audience | Pin Real Time Tactics |
| 18 | Wargame13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 83 launches | 13 in 10011 hits | $10,629 | $175,925 | 83 | Audience | Pin Wargame |
| 19 | Collectathon13 in 100 earned $100k+, from 113 launches | 13 in 10015 hits | $6,569 | $154,485 | 113 | 1-hit | Pin Collectathon |
| 20 | Point & Click14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 249 launches | 14 in 10034 hits | $3,377 | $142,534 | 249 | none | Pin Point & Click |
| 21 | 2D Platformer14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 311 launches | 14 in 10045 hits | $6,569 | $179,642 | 311 | none | Pin 2D Platformer |
| 22 | Post-apocalyptic15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 112 launches | 15 in 10017 hits | $10,843 | $193,708 | 112 | none | Pin Post-apocalyptic |
| 23 | Survival Horror15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 117 launches | 15 in 10018 hits | $10,843 | $149,228 | 117 | 1-hit | Pin Survival Horror |
| 24 | Platformer15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 310 launches | 15 in 10048 hits | $7,756 | $252,165 | 310 | 1-hit | Pin Platformer |
| 25 | Turn-Based Strategy16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 275 launches | 16 in 10043 hits | $8,331 | $202,699 | 275 | Audience | Pin Turn-Based Strategy |
Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 95 genres
green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players
Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.