Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 6 to 30 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. The revenue estimate is soft: about 5 to 8 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs that hit $100k+ beyond the oddsFree until launch

Cartoony + Horrorabout 6.2 times expected at its prices15 in 100

1Cartoony + Horror15 in 10040 launches 2FPS + Funny17 in 10041 launches 3Incremental + Pixel Graphics1 in13131 launches 4Idler + Pixel Graphics1 in12162 launches 5Funny + Online Co-Op20 in 10086 launches

Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Without the breakout

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Drops the single biggest earner. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 30+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 Without the breakout 30+ launches Reset

The Without the breakout lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Now: Base Building, 21 in 100. 95 match.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Now: Desktop Companion, $32,516 typical. 255 match.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Not computed for lenses yet.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 30 in 100. 97 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Now: Puzzle, 5,256 launches. 255 match.

Hide one-hit markets47 out Hide small samples22 out

255 of 256 genres have 30+ launches at any price, Without the breakout. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.

Parody 1 in 21 earned $100k+, from 128 launches at any price, Without the breakouttypical $373 none

Class-Based 1 in 11 earned $100k+, from 84 launches at any price, Without the breakouttypical $1,723. Best of the pins none

Artificial Intelligence 1 in 30 earned $100k+, from 209 launches at any price, Without the breakouttypical $285 none

Genres at any price, Without the breakout, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, Without the breakoutthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 171,546 of 26,280	$540	not computed	26,280
1	Desktop Companion37 in 100 earned $100k+, from 30 launches	37 in 10011 hits	$32,516	not computed	30	Small	Pin Desktop Companion
2	Open World Survival Craft30 in 100 earned $100k+, from 108 launches	30 in 10032 hits	$18,701	not computed	108	1-hit	Pin Open World Survival Craft
3	Shop Keeper27 in 100 earned $100k+, from 70 launches	27 in 10019 hits	$20,791	not computed	70	1-hit	Pin Shop Keeper
4	Base Building21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 582 launches	21 in 100124 hits	$3,034	not computed	582	none	Pin Base Building
5	FMV20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 147 launches	20 in 10029 hits	$9,576	not computed	147	Audience	Pin FMV
6	Colony Sim20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 218 launches	20 in 10043 hits	$2,870	not computed	218	none	Pin Colony Sim
7	Online Co-Op19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 646 launches	19 in 100125 hits	$4,883	not computed	646	none	Pin Online Co-Op
8	Building19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 843 launches	19 in 100156 hits	$2,297	not computed	843	none	Pin Building
9	Co-op18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 676 launches	18 in 100120 hits	$3,619	not computed	676	none	Pin Co-op
10	Open World18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 860 launches	18 in 100152 hits	$1,856	not computed	860	none	Pin Open World
11	Mechs17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 101 launches	17 in 10017 hits	$3,619	not computed	101	none	Pin Mechs
12	City Builder17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 506 launches	17 in 10084 hits	$1,856	not computed	506	none	Pin City Builder
13	Economy16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 477 launches	16 in 10078 hits	$3,962	not computed	477	none	Pin Economy
14	Crafting16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 643 launches	16 in 100105 hits	$2,085	not computed	643	none	Pin Crafting
15	Management16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,005 launches	16 in 100163 hits	$3,730	not computed	1,005	none	Pin Management
16	Trains16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 74 launches	16 in 10012 hits	$7,150	not computed	74	Audience	Pin Trains
17	Trading16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 124 launches	16 in 10020 hits	$5,411	not computed	124	Audience	Pin Trading
18	Sandbox16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,218 launches	16 in 100192 hits	$1,882	not computed	1,218	none	Pin Sandbox
19	Roguelike Deckbuilder16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 229 launches	16 in 10036 hits	$7,712	not computed	229	none	Pin Roguelike Deckbuilder
20	Job Simulator15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 86 launches	15 in 10013 hits	$7,362	not computed	86	none	Pin Job Simulator
21	Cozy15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 491 launches	15 in 10074 hits	$2,411	not computed	491	none	Pin Cozy
22	Crime15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 204 launches	15 in 10030 hits	$1,351	not computed	204	1-hit	Pin Crime
23	World War II14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 77 launches	14 in 10011 hits	$2,106	not computed	77	none	Pin World War II
24	Automation14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 297 launches	14 in 10042 hits	$2,195	not computed	297	1-hitAudience	Pin Automation
25	Resource Management14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 560 launches	14 in 10078 hits	$1,915	not computed	560	none	Pin Resource Management

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 255 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.