Genres

Every genre, screened by how often its indie launches earned $100k or more in their first year. Pick your price first: price moves the odds more than genre does.

Indie paid Steam launches 12 to 36 months old, data 3 Oct 2026. A hit is an estimated first year of $100k+. Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer. The revenue estimate is soft: about 6 to 7.5 in 100 launches overall.

Best niches

All prices

Pairs with the best chance of $100k+, above the base rateFree until launch

City Builder + Managementabout 2.0 times expected at its prices, could be luck35 in 100

1City Builder + Management35 in 100120 launches 2Base Building + City Builder34 in 100131 launches 3Base Building + Crafting33 in 100141 launches 4Base Building + Management33 in 100123 launches 5City Builder + Colony Sim32 in 100116 launches

Lens checkOne-hit market +1. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.

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Best nichesFree until launchClick to unlockTag pairs that beat the odds

The genre list

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 238 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2020 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,291 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens West-facing view

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

Games mostly reviewed outside China: drops games with 35% or more of their reviews in Chinese. That share is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; for smaller games it is guessed from the game's name. Lenses are computed across all prices only so far, so a lens reads All prices.

Sample 100+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20 West-facing view 100+ launches Reset

The West-facing view lens is computed across all prices only for now, so this list reads All prices. Pick Standard to read $10 to $20.

Best odds at my priceChance of $100k+, read within one price band.Opens $10 to $20, Standard lens.Steady marketsHolds in every lens and no single game owns it.Loads the 30+ launches view.Biggest typical yearWhat the middle launch earned, highest first.Loads the 30+ launches view.Biggest upsideWhat the top tenth earned at least.Loads the 30+ launches view.Proven at scale100+ launches and above the base rate.Now: Open World Survival Craft, 32 in 100. 97 match.Busiest marketsMost launches first: where the competition is.Loads the 30+ launches view.

Hide one-hit markets23 out Hide small samples0 out

181 of 256 genres have 100+ launches at any price, West-facing view. Sorted by chance of $100k+, highest first.

asynchronous-multiplayerNot in this view: under 100 launches at any price, West-facing view.

hackingNot in this view: under 100 launches at any price, West-facing view.

class-basedNot in this view: under 100 launches at any price, West-facing view.

Genres at any price, West-facing view, sorted by chance of $100k+. The first row is the base rate.
Rank#	Genre	Chance of $100k+	Typical year	Top 1 in 10	Launches	Markers	Pin
	All games at any price, West-facing viewthe base rate: the row to beat	1 in 151,722 of 26,291	$552	not computed	26,291
1	Open World Survival Craft32 in 100 earned $100k+, from 109 launches	32 in 10035 hits	$25,124	not computed	109	1-hit	Pin Open World Survival Craft
2	Base Building23 in 100 earned $100k+, from 555 launches	23 in 100128 hits	$3,718	not computed	555	none	Pin Base Building
3	Colony Sim22 in 100 earned $100k+, from 217 launches	22 in 10048 hits	$3,380	not computed	217	none	Pin Colony Sim
4	Online Co-Op21 in 100 earned $100k+, from 626 launches	21 in 100129 hits	$5,179	not computed	626	none	Pin Online Co-Op
5	Building20 in 100 earned $100k+, from 819 launches	20 in 100165 hits	$2,704	not computed	819	none	Pin Building
6	Co-op19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 659 launches	19 in 100127 hits	$4,089	not computed	659	none	Pin Co-op
7	Trading19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 115 launches	19 in 10022 hits	$7,374	not computed	115	none	Pin Trading
8	Open World19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 820 launches	19 in 100155 hits	$2,107	not computed	820	none	Pin Open World
9	City Builder19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 477 launches	19 in 10089 hits	$2,188	not computed	477	Audience	Pin City Builder
10	Economy19 in 100 earned $100k+, from 469 launches	19 in 10087 hits	$4,865	not computed	469	none	Pin Economy
11	Crafting18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 624 launches	18 in 100114 hits	$2,621	not computed	624	none	Pin Crafting
12	Management18 in 100 earned $100k+, from 974 launches	18 in 100174 hits	$4,018	not computed	974	none	Pin Management
13	FMV17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 106 launches	17 in 10018 hits	$5,519	not computed	106	Audience	Pin FMV
14	Roguelike Deckbuilder17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 218 launches	17 in 10037 hits	$9,059	not computed	218	none	Pin Roguelike Deckbuilder
15	Automation17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 285 launches	17 in 10048 hits	$2,760	not computed	285	1-hit	Pin Automation
16	Cozy17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 484 launches	17 in 10081 hits	$2,345	not computed	484	Audience	Pin Cozy
17	Sandbox17 in 100 earned $100k+, from 1,173 launches	17 in 100194 hits	$2,070	not computed	1,173	none	Pin Sandbox
18	Resource Management16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 546 launches	16 in 10087 hits	$2,146	not computed	546	none	Pin Resource Management
19	Mining16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 113 launches	16 in 10018 hits	$1,622	not computed	113	none	Pin Mining
20	Bullet Heaven16 in 100 earned $100k+, from 127 launches	16 in 10020 hits	$8,276	not computed	127	none	Pin Bullet Heaven
21	Farming Sim15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 325 launches	15 in 10050 hits	$1,769	not computed	325	none	Pin Farming Sim
22	Metroidvania15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 356 launches	15 in 10054 hits	$3,052	not computed	356	1-hitAudience	Pin Metroidvania
23	Fishing15 in 100 earned $100k+, from 135 launches	15 in 10020 hits	$1,681	not computed	135	none	Pin Fishing
24	Life Sim14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 846 launches	14 in 100119 hits	$2,054	not computed	846	none	Pin Life Sim
25	Music14 in 100 earned $100k+, from 143 launches	14 in 10020 hits	$1,007	not computed	143	none	Pin Music

Show 25 moreShowing 25 of 181 genres

green beats the base ratecoral below it bar: the chance; amber tick: the base rate1-hit one game holds over half the moneySmall under 50 launches in this viewAudience reads differently for Western players

Under 30 launches or 5 hits a chance is written as a count ("3 of 12"), never as odds. Typical year is the middle launch's first-year earnings. Lenses, the one-hit share and the audience split are measured across all prices.