Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Pick up to three tags and a price. Get a plain answer: your odds of a $100k first year, what launches like yours earned, what you are up against, and what to watch for.
4 of 38 Cooking + Simulation launches at any price earned $100k+ in their first year.
4 of 38
4 of 38 launches: too few for a steady rate. Notch: 1 in 15 for all indie launches.
Not computed yet
38 launches, too few for a typical figure (it needs 100). $1k+: not computed yet. Notch: 18 in 100, all indie launches.
38 launches
At any price, in two years (about 19 a year). Busier than 0 in 100 tag pairs; the notch is the middle one.
449 games
Coming-soon games with these tags. More than 93 in 100 tag pairs. Highest on wishlists: Japanese Ramen Simulator (#343), Bancho the Chef (#493).
Odds by size: the chance of a first year past each line.
Cooking + Simulation at any price all indie launches. 38 launches, too few for a typical figure (it needs 100).
Clear.
In the West-facing view (games mostly reviewed outside China), the chance moves from 17 in 100 to 16 in 100, more than a random cut of that size would.
Only 4 hits in 38 launches at any price. A few games either way would move this a lot.
Reads better than the 1 in 15 for all indie launches, but with 38 launches a gap this size often comes from chance alone.
Too few to tell: it needs 5+ hits in both views.
Lens checkAudience split. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.
Standard, West-facing view, Without the breakout, Last 18 months. Lenses use all prices.Earnings are estimated from store reviews, so the $100k line is soft: across the estimate's range, the share of all indie launches above it runs from about 6 to 7.5 in 100. Sales on Steam before Steam's cut; about 58% of it reaches the developer.
Indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, measured 3 Oct 2026. Coming-soon counts from the store, 3 Oct 2026.
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Top earners with these tags, est. lifetime salesFree until launch
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.