Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Pick up to three tags and a price. Get a plain answer: your odds of a $100k first year, what launches like yours earned, what you are up against, and what to watch for.
2 of 49 Dystopian launches at any price earned $100k+ in their first year.
2 of 49
2 of 49 launches: too few for a steady rate. Notch: 1 in 15 for all indie launches.
Not computed yet
49 launches, too few for a typical figure (it needs 100). $1k+: not computed yet. Notch: 18 in 100, all indie launches.
49 launches
At any price, in two years (about 25 a year). Busier than 7 in 100 single tags; the notch is the middle one.
663 games
Coming-soon games with this tag. More than 60 in 100 single tags. Highest on wishlists: False Echo (#539), Pikuniku 2 (#869).
Odds by size: the chance of a first year past each line.
Dystopian at any price all indie launches. 49 launches, too few for a typical figure (it needs 100).
Clear.
In the West-facing view (games mostly reviewed outside China), the chance moves from 13 in 100 to 11 in 100, more than a random cut of that size would.
Only 2 hits in 49 launches at any price. A few games either way would move this a lot.
Reads worse than the 1 in 15 for all indie launches, but with 49 launches a gap this size often comes from chance alone.
Too few to tell: it needs 5+ hits in both views.
Lens checkAudience split. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.
Standard, West-facing view, Without the breakout, Last 18 months. Lenses use all prices.Earnings are estimated from store reviews, so the $100k line is soft: across the estimate's range, the share of all indie launches above it runs from about 6 to 7.5 in 100. Sales on Steam before Steam's cut; about 58% of it reaches the developer.
Indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, measured 3 Oct 2026. Coming-soon counts from the store, 3 Oct 2026.
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Top earners with these tags, est. lifetime salesFree until launch
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.