Experimental: idea check

1Your idea

2The readout

Your odds

1 in 53 Experimental launches at any price earned $100k+ in their first year. That is worse than the 1 in 16 for all indie launches: about 0.3 times the rate.

Chance of $100k+

1 in 53

Notch: 1 in 16 for all indie launches.

Typical first year

$822

Under 1% of the way to $100k. Half earned less. Notch: $606, all indie launches.

Competition

53 launches

At any price, in two years (about 27 a year). Busier than 8 in 100 single tags; the notch is the middle one.

Coming soon

172 games

Coming-soon games with this tag. More than 27 in 100 single tags. Highest on wishlists: Where Beasts Were Born (#4,458), Charming Hill (#4,536).

What launches like this earned in their first year

Only the typical figure is measured for this lens.

Typical launchHalf earned less$822Under 1% of the way to $100k.

Top quarter1 in 4 earned at leastNot computed yet: Last 18 months figures carry the typical launch only.

Top tenth1 in 10 earned at leastNot computed yet: Last 18 months figures carry the typical launch only.

Experimental at any price past the $100k line (squeezed to fit, not to scale) all indie launches

Warning lamps

3 of 5 lit

One-hit marketLit
Nodebuster earned 53% of all the money. Read the typical figure, not the hits.
Audience splitOff
Clear.
Small sampleOff
Clear.
May be luckLit
Reads worse than the 1 in 16 for all indie launches, but with 53 launches a gap this size often comes from chance alone.
Changed recentlyLit
Launches from the last 18 months: 1 in 53, against 1 in 30 across both years.

Lens checkOne-hit market +1. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: moves the answer.

Standard, West-facing view, Without the breakout, Last 18 months. Lenses use all prices.

Earnings are estimated from store reviews, so the $100k line is soft: across the estimate's range, the share of all indie launches above it runs from about 5 to 8 in 100.

Indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, measured 1 Oct 2026. Coming-soon counts from the store, 2 Oct 2026.

3What next

Monthly read

Free

A monthly read on Experimental

Once a month we re-measure your odds at any price and tell you in plain words what changed.

Your odds, re-measured on the latest launches
How last month's launches with these tags did
Who is about to launch, highest on wishlists first

If the read went out today 1 Oct 2026

Your odds1 in 53 earned $100k+ at any price, against 1 in 16 for all indie launches.
EarningsTypical first year $822.
Launches55 games of every kind with these tags in the last 12 months (49 the year before).
Coming soon172 games; highest on wishlists Where Beasts Were Born (#4,458).

One email a month. No spam, leave with one click.

Comparables

Lifetime

Top earners with these tags, est. lifetime grossFree until launch

Nodebusterlaunched 2024, 13,866 reviews$840k

1Nodebuster$840k2024

2Bulwark: Falconeer Chronicles$561k2024

3Windowkill$343k2024

4RUBATO$181k2026

5Juice Galaxy$127k2023

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockLifetime top earners like yours

4Data notes

Odds and earnings: Wave-a figures, generated 1 Oct 2026: 29,637 indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old (majors, $40+, adult and free games out). A hit is an estimated first-year revenue of $100k or more. "Typical" is the median; "top quarter" is the 75th percentile and "top tenth" the 90th.
Tags and combinations: 329 tags (genres and descriptors such as 2D and Casual), 5,145 tag pairs and 9,720 three-tag combinations. Pairs and triples are only in the data with 40 or more launches, so a missing one has fewer than 40; the exact count is not stored.
Price band rates: under $5: 1 in 200 (15,379 launches); $5 to $10: 1 in 26 (8,218 launches); $10 to $20: 19 in 100 (4,810 launches); $20 to $40: 42 in 100 (1,230 launches). All prices: 1 in 16. With "Any price", the comparison is all indie launches.
Gauges: Competition places the pick among combinations of the same size (single tags, pairs or triples) at the same price; coming soon places single tags and pairs among all genres and niches. The notch is the middle one. Earnings notches show every game at the price.
Lamps: One-hit market: one game holds over half the money, or dropping it moves the chance over 25%. Audience split: the West-facing view (games mostly reviewed outside China) moves typical earnings over 10% or the chance over 25%. Small sample: under 30 launches. May be luck: the gap to the base rate is inside what chance produces 95 times in 100 (a two-sided binomial test). Changed recently: launches from the last 18 months move the chance over 25%, or there are under 10 of them.
Lens check: Computed on all-price figures (by-price lens figures are not computed yet). Standard is the yardstick and is not counted. Three-tag combinations carry no lenses yet, so their pips stay grey.
Competition: Launches in the two-year sample. Coming-soon counts for tags and pairs come from the nightly niche rollup (2 Oct 2026); for three tags, from the coming-soon list, which stores only each game's top five tags, so the count is a floor. Named games are the highest on wishlists; adult-tagged games are left out.
Comparables: The top indie earners stored for these tags, with estimated lifetime gross (not first year). Three-tag combinations have none stored, so the card shows the most specific readable pair inside and says so. Matching by price and launch year is not computed yet.
Soft estimate: Revenue is reviews times a multiplier times price. Across the multiplier's range the overall base rate runs 4.8% to 8.4%, so every readout carries that note.

Idea check