Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Pick up to three tags and a price. Get a plain answer: your odds of a $100k first year, what launches like yours earned, what you are up against, and what to watch for.
None of the 22 Hex Grid launches at any price earned $100k+ in their first year.
0 of 22
0 of 22 launches: too few for a steady rate. Notch: 1 in 17 for all indie launches.
$383
Under 1% of the way to $100k. Half earned less. Notch: $540, all indie launches.
22 launches
At any price, in two years (about 11 a year). Busier than 0 in 100 single tags; the notch is the middle one.
201 games
Coming-soon games with this tag. More than 32 in 100 single tags. Highest on wishlists: Beaten Path (#1,238), Seres Universalis:Three Kingdoms (#3,534).
Only the typical figure is measured for this lens.
Hex Grid at any price past the $100k line (squeezed to fit, not to scale) all indie launches
Clear.
Too few to tell: it needs 5+ hits in both views.
Only 22 launches at any price. A few games either way would move this a lot.
Reads worse than the 1 in 17 for all indie launches, but with 22 launches a gap this size often comes from chance alone.
Too few to tell: it needs 5+ hits in both views.
Lens checkHolds in 1 of 3, 2 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.
Standard, West-facing view, Without the breakout, Last 18 months. Lenses use all prices.Earnings are estimated from store reviews, so the $100k line is soft: across the estimate's range, the share of all indie launches above it runs from about 5 to 8 in 100. Sales on Steam before Steam's cut; about 58% of it reaches the developer.
Indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, measured 3 Oct 2026. Coming-soon counts from the store, 3 Oct 2026.
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Top earners with these tags, est. lifetime salesFree until launch
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.