Idea check

Pick up to three tags and a price. Get a plain answer: your odds of a $100k first year, what launches like yours earned, what you are up against, and what to watch for.

1Your idea

2The readout

Your odds

None of the 13 Archery launches at $10 to $20 earned $100k+ in their first year.

Chance of $100k+

0 of 13

0 of 13 launches: too few for a steady rate. Notch: 18 in 100 for all indie launches at $10 to $20.

Typical first year

$706

Under 1% of the way to $100k. Half earned less. Notch: $8,234, every game at $10 to $20.

Competition

13 launches

At $10 to $20, in two years (about 7 a year). Busier than 11 in 100 single tags; the notch is the middle one.

Coming soon

125 games

Coming-soon games with this tag. More than 22 in 100 single tags. Highest on wishlists: Falling Limbs (#3,810), Bygoner (#4,758).

What launches like this earned in their first year

Even the top tenth falls short of $100k.

Typical launchHalf earned less$706Under 1% of the way to $100k.

Top quarter1 in 4 earned at least$4,9035% of the way to $100k.

Top tenth1 in 10 earned at least$36,77737% of the way to $100k.

Archery at $10 to $20 past the $100k line (squeezed to fit, not to scale) every game at $10 to $20

Warning lamps

3 of 5 lit

One-hit marketLit
Oh Deer earned 50% of all the money. Read the typical figure, not the hits.
Audience splitToo few
Too few to tell: it needs 5+ hits in both views.
Small sampleLit
Only 13 launches at $10 to $20. A few games either way would move this a lot.
May be luckLit
Reads worse than the 18 in 100 for all indie launches at $10 to $20, but with 13 launches a gap this size often comes from chance alone.
Changed recentlyToo few
Too few to tell: it needs 5+ hits in both views.

Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Standard, West-facing view, Without the breakout, Last 18 months. Lenses use all prices.

Earnings are estimated from store reviews, so the $100k line is soft: across the estimate's range, the share of all indie launches above it runs from about 5 to 8 in 100. Sales on Steam before Steam's cut; about 58% of it reaches the developer.

Indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, measured 3 Oct 2026. Coming-soon counts from the store, 3 Oct 2026.

3What next

Monthly read

Free

A monthly read on Archery

Once a month we re-measure your odds at $10 to $20 and tell you in plain words what changed.

Your odds, re-measured on the latest launches
How last month's launches with these tags did
Who is about to launch, highest on wishlists first

If the read went out today 3 Oct 2026

Your odds0 of 13 earned $100k+ at $10 to $20, against 18 in 100 for all indie launches at $10 to $20.
EarningsTypical first year $706; 1 in 10 earned $36,777 or more.
Launches31 games of every kind with these tags in the last 12 months (33 the year before).
Coming soon125 games; highest on wishlists Falling Limbs (#3,810).

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Comparables

Lifetime

Top earners with these tags, est. lifetime salesFree until launch

Oh Deerlaunched 2024, 2,128 reviews$430k

1Oh Deer$430k2024

2The Axis Unseen$157k2024

3Reach$150k2025

4Thief VR: Legacy of Shadow$140k2025

5Zad Archery$123k2026

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockLifetime top earners like yours

4Data notes

Odds and earnings: Figures of 3 Oct 2026: 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old (majors, $40+, adult and free games out). A hit is an estimated first-year revenue of $100k or more. Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer. "Typical" is the median; "top quarter" is the 75th percentile and "top tenth" the 90th.
Tags and combinations: 319 tags (genres and descriptors such as 2D and Casual), 4,634 tag pairs and 8,246 three-tag combinations. Pairs and triples are only in the data with 40 or more launches, so a missing one has fewer than 40; the exact count is not stored.
Price band rates: under $5: 1 in 219 (13,780 launches); $5 to $10: 1 in 30 (6,975 launches); $10 to $20: 18 in 100 (4,301 launches); $20 to $40: 40 in 100 (1,224 launches). All prices: 1 in 17. With "Any price", the comparison is all indie launches.
Gauges: Competition places the pick among combinations of the same size (single tags, pairs or triples) at the same price; coming soon places single tags and pairs among all genres and niches. The notch is the middle one. Earnings notches show every game at the price.
Lamps: One-hit market: one game holds over half the money. Audience split: the West-facing view (games mostly reviewed outside China) moves the chance more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides, or moves typical earnings over 25% with 100+ launches in the view. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; for smaller games it is guessed from the name. Small sample: under 30 launches or 5 hits. May be luck: the gap to the base rate is small enough that chance alone could give it 95 times in 100. Changed recently: the same test as Audience split, on launches from the last 18 months. With fewer than 5 hits a lamp says too few to tell and stays grey.
Lens check: Computed on all-price figures (by-price lens figures are not computed yet). Standard is the base and is not counted. Three-tag combinations carry no lenses yet, so their pips stay grey.
Competition: Launches in the two-year sample. Coming-soon counts for tags and pairs come from the nightly niche rollup (3 Oct 2026); for three tags, from the coming-soon list, which stores only each game's top five tags, so the count is a floor. Named games are the highest on wishlists; adult-tagged games are left out.
Comparables: The top indie earners stored for these tags, with est. lifetime sales (not first year, and before Steam's cut). Three-tag combinations have none stored, so the card shows the most specific readable pair inside and says so. Matching by price and launch year is not computed yet.
Soft estimate: Revenue is reviews times a multiplier times price. Checked against 453 published sales figures: right for the typical game (31 to 35 real copies per review since 2020; we use 30), rough for any single game. Across the multiplier's range the overall base rate runs 4.8% to 8.4%, so every readout carries that note.