Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
2D + Detective: a typical launch earns $971 in its first year
That is the median of 79 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 10 of 155 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 9.1 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 23% on the year before: 111 against 90.
- Price
- $971 median of 79 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- +33.9% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 111 90 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 271 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 773 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 0.11%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.06% to 0.18% | 22 ranked of 271 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #1,616 of 7,193pairs on this board |
| Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. | 1.08xhits against expected | 0.75x to 1.60x | 155 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #2,340 of 6,324pairs on this board |
| Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. | Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 20 or more releases in each 12-month period. | |||
| Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. | Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 1,000 reviews in each window. | |||
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 155
- Hit rate
- 6.5%2.9% to 10.5%
- Expected rate
- 5.9%
- Against expected
- 1.08x0.75x to 1.60x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
155 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $21
- Median
- $1,092
- Top tenth
- $48,795
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- +23%
Parent tags
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
- Enigma of Fear (opens the Steam store)2024 · 3,095 reviews, 95% positiveest. $1.9M
- The Rise of the Golden Idol (opens the Steam store)2024 · 3,797 reviews, 92% positiveest. $1.5M
- Kathy Rain 2: Soothsayer (opens the Steam store)2025 · 1,253 reviews, 96% positiveest. $507k
- Staffer Retro : A Supernatural Mystery Quest (opens the Steam store)2026 · 968 reviews, 89% positiveest. $490k
- Loco Motive (opens the Steam store)2024 · 1,230 reviews, 92% positiveest. $448k
- Mercury Abbey (opens the Steam store)2024 · 790 reviews, 92% positiveest. $288k
- Database Detective: Minor Crimes Division (opens the Steam store)2026 · 936 reviews, 97% positiveest. $284k
- Confidential Killings - A Detective Game (opens the Steam store)2026 · 720 reviews, 76% positiveest. $219k
More with 2D
pairs with 2D- 2D + Roguelike Deckbuilder$6,77234 launches priced, 64 releases in 12 months
- 2D + Romance$3,28176 launches priced, 110 releases in 12 months
- War + 2D$3,16035 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
- 2D + Dating Sim$2,55991 launches priced, 116 releases in 12 months
- 2D + LGBTQ+$2,46550 launches priced, 85 releases in 12 months
- 2D + Historical$2,32474 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months
More with Detective
pairs with Detective- Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
- Detective + Mystery$5,207106 launches priced, 184 releases in 12 months
- Story Rich + Detective$4,125108 launches priced, 153 releases in 12 months
- Detective + Investigation$3,96395 launches priced, 150 releases in 12 months
- Point & Click + Detective$2,10470 launches priced, 109 releases in 12 months
- Exploration + Detective$1,94182 launches priced, 113 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
in developmentGMD Verdicts will be a written read on a niche, built from the same data and the published method on this site. Join the early list and we will email you when the first ones are ready. Nothing on this page is held back while you wait.