Comparables
LeadersTop earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewTicker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / 2D + Incremental
2D + Incremental
Games tagged both 2D and Incremental: 553 indie paid launches, 9 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing 2D + Incremental priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with 2D and is about level with Incremental; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with 2D and is too small to compare with Incremental.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
2D + Incremental is too small to compare with 2D and is too small to compare with Incremental: 2 of its 18 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 16.6 in 100 for 2D and 3 of 38 launches for Incremental.
Small sample: 18 launches, 2 hits.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 18 games tagged both 2D and Incremental priced $10 to $20. 2 of 18 of them earned $100k+, against 16.7 in 100 for 2D-only games and 1 of 20 for Incremental-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with 2D alone and is too small to compare with Incremental alone.
Both: 18 games priced $10 to $20; 2 of 18 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 12 of 18 launches · $10k+ 7 of 18 launches · $100k+ 2 of 18 launches.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 18 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
2D + Incremental holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view505 of 553 launches | Without the breakout552 of 553 launches | Last 18 months215 of 553 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 5539 hits | 5059 hits | 5528 hits | 2155 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 1.6 in 1001 in 61 | 1.8 in 1001 in 56 | 1.4 in 1001 in 69 | 2.3 in 1001 in 43 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $202top tenth $5,776+ | $227 | $202 | $193 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +9.5%0.2 more in 100 | -11.0%0.2 fewer in 100 | +42.9%0.7 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +12.4%$25 more | 0.0%no change | -4.5%$9 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both 2D and Incremental, 12 to 36 months old: 553 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 48 of 553 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, (the) Gnorp Apologue (18.4% of the money): 552 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 215 of 553.
2D holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| 2D | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view7,851 of 8,361 launches | Without the breakout8,360 of 8,361 launches | Last 18 months2,328 of 8,361 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 8,361283 hits | 7,851261 hits | 8,360282 hits | 2,32884 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 3.4 in 1001 in 30 | 3.3 in 1001 in 30 | 3.4 in 1001 in 30 | 3.6 in 1001 in 28 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $290top tenth $13,574+ | $295 | $290 | $273 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -1.8%0.1 fewer in 100 | -0.3%no change | +6.6%0.2 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +1.7%$5 more | 0.0%no change | -5.9%$17 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged 2D, 12 to 36 months old: 8,361 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 510 of 8,361 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (39.4% of the money): 8,360 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,328 of 8,361.
Incremental is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.
| Incremental | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,007 of 1,103 launches | Without the breakout1,102 of 1,103 launches | Last 18 months395 of 1,103 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,10325 hits | 1,00723 hits | 1,10224 hits | 39513 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.3 in 1001 in 44 | 2.3 in 1001 in 44 | 2.2 in 1001 in 46 | 3.3 in 1001 in 30 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $273top tenth $12,992+ | $288 | $273 | $257 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +0.8%no change | -3.9%0.1 fewer in 100 | +45.2%1.0 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +5.5%$15 more | 0.0%no change | -5.9%$16 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Incremental, 12 to 36 months old: 1,103 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 96 of 1,103 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, (the) Gnorp Apologue (7.2% of the money): 1,102 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 395 of 1,103.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when 2D + Incremental moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
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