Niche

2D + Perma Death

Games tagged both 2D and Perma Death: 120 indie paid launches, 1 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing 2D + Perma Death priced $10 to $20.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

2D + Perma Death is too small to compare with 2D and is too small to compare with Perma Death: 0 of its 10 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 13.8 in 100 for 2D and 17.0 in 100 for Perma Death.

Small sample: 10 launches, 0 hits.

TIETied

Tag onemood tag2D

13.8in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds13.8 in 100

Typical earnings$5,569

Launches960 / 132 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pair2D + Perma Death

0 of 10launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds0 of 10 launches

Typical earnings$5,064

Launches10 / 0 hits

Expected17.6 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoPerma Death

17.0in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds17.0 in 100

Typical earnings$9,115

Launches53 / 9 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 17.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $8,234, from 4,301 launches.each block is 1 in 100 all indie at $10 to $202D is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices120 in pair Under $574 in pair $5 to $1034 in pair $10 to $2010 in pair$20 to $402: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 10 games tagged both 2D and Perma Death priced $10 to $20. 0 of 10 of them earned $100k+, against 13.9 in 100 for 2D-only games and 20.9 in 100 for Perma Death-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with 2D alone and is too small to compare with Perma Death alone.

Both: 10 games priced $10 to $20; 0 of 10 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $5,064.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 10 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Aliya: Timelinkleads this pair40.0%

PairAliya: Timelink40.0%

2DHollow Knight: Silksong39.3%

Perma DeathVoid War17.3%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkAudience split. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads 2D + Perma Death

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Aliya: Timelink earned 40.0% of the estimated first-year money of the 120 2D + Perma Death launches.
2D is led by Hollow Knight: Silksong, with 39.3% of its money.
Perma Death is led by Void War, with 17.3% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

2D + Perma Death is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout.

2D + Perma Death through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view110 of 120 launches	Without the breakout119 of 120 launches	Last 18 months32 of 120 launches
Launches counted	1201 hits	1100 hits	1190 hits	320 hits
Earned $100k+	1 of 120too few for a rate	0 of 110too few for a rate	0 of 119too few for a rate	0 of 32too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$191top tenth $3,511+	$253	$191	$153
Chance against standard	the base	-100.0%0.8 fewer in 100; too few to tell	-100.0%0.8 fewer in 100	-100.0%0.8 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	+32.5%$62 more	0.0%no change	-19.9%$38 less; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both 2D and Perma Death, 12 to 36 months old: 120 launches.

Launches counted: 1201 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 120too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $191top tenth $3,511+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 10 of 120 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1100 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 110too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $253
Chance against standard: -100.0%0.8 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: +32.5%$62 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Aliya: Timelink (40.0% of the money): 119 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1190 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 119too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $191
Chance against standard: -100.0%0.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 32 of 120.

Launches counted: 320 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 32too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $153
Chance against standard: -100.0%0.8 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: -19.9%$38 less; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both 2D and Perma Death, 12 to 36 months old: 120 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 10 of 120 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Aliya: Timelink (40.0% of the money): 119 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 32 of 120.

2D is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

2D through every lens, all prices
2D	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view7,740 of 8,238 launches	Without the breakout8,237 of 8,238 launches	Last 18 months2,299 of 8,238 launches
Launches counted	8,238239 hits	7,740217 hits	8,237238 hits	2,29974 hits
Earned $100k+	2.9 in 1001 in 34	2.8 in 1001 in 36	2.9 in 1001 in 35	3.2 in 1001 in 31
Typical first-year earnings	$286top tenth $11,851+	$303	$286	$285
Chance against standard	the base	-3.4%0.1 fewer in 100	-0.4%no change	+10.9%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+5.9%$17 more	0.0%no change	-0.3%$1 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged 2D, 12 to 36 months old: 8,238 launches.

Launches counted: 8,238239 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.9 in 1001 in 34
Typical first-year earnings: $286top tenth $11,851+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 498 of 8,238 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 7,740217 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.8 in 1001 in 36
Typical first-year earnings: $303
Chance against standard: -3.4%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +5.9%$17 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (39.3% of the money): 8,237 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 8,237238 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.9 in 1001 in 35
Typical first-year earnings: $286
Chance against standard: -0.4%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,299 of 8,238.

Launches counted: 2,29974 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.2 in 1001 in 31
Typical first-year earnings: $285
Chance against standard: +10.9%0.3 more in 100
Typical against standard: -0.3%$1 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged 2D, 12 to 36 months old: 8,238 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 498 of 8,238 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (39.3% of the money): 8,237 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,299 of 8,238.

Perma Death is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Perma Death through every lens, all prices
Perma Death	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view379 of 395 launches	Without the breakout394 of 395 launches	Last 18 months117 of 395 launches
Launches counted	39517 hits	37914 hits	39416 hits	1175 hits
Earned $100k+	4.3 in 1001 in 23	3.7 in 1001 in 27	4.1 in 1001 in 25	4.3 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings	$539top tenth $12,643+	$590	$539	$459
Chance against standard	the base	-14.2%0.6 fewer in 100	-5.6%0.2 fewer in 100	-0.7%no change
Typical against standard	the base	+9.5%$51 more	0.0%no change	-14.8%$80 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Perma Death, 12 to 36 months old: 395 launches.

Launches counted: 39517 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.3 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings: $539top tenth $12,643+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 16 of 395 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 37914 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.7 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings: $590
Chance against standard: -14.2%0.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +9.5%$51 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Void War (17.3% of the money): 394 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 39416 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.1 in 1001 in 25
Typical first-year earnings: $539
Chance against standard: -5.6%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 117 of 395.

Launches counted: 1175 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.3 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings: $459
Chance against standard: -0.7%no change
Typical against standard: -14.8%$80 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Perma Death, 12 to 36 months old: 395 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 16 of 395 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Void War (17.3% of the money): 394 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 117 of 395.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when 2D + Perma Death moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.