Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
2D + Surreal
Games tagged both 2D and Surreal: 118 indie paid launches, 5 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing 2D + Surreal priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats 2D and trails Surreal; priced $10 to $20 it trails both its tags.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
2D + Surreal trails both its tags: 1 of its 14 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 14.4 in 100 for 2D and 19.4 in 100 for Surreal.
Small sample: 14 launches, 1 hits.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 14 games tagged both 2D and Surreal priced $10 to $20. 7.1 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 14.5 for 2D-only games and 21.5 for Surreal-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.
Both: 14 games priced $10 to $20; 7.1 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 14), typical first-year earnings $3,035.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 14 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
2D + Surreal holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view111 of 118 launches | Without the breakout117 of 118 launches | Last 18 months59 of 118 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1185 hits | 1115 hits | 1174 hits | 593 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 4.2 in 1001 in 24 | 4.5 in 1001 in 22 | 3.4 in 1001 in 29 | 5.1 in 1001 in 20 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $809top tenth $14,289+ | $808 | $808 | $1,010 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +7.1%0.3 more in 100 | -19.0%0.8 fewer in 100 | +21.4%0.9 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -0.1%$1 less | -0.1%$1 less | +24.8%$201 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both 2D and Surreal, 6 to 30 months old: 118 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 7 of 118 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Nubby's Number Factory (51.8% of the money): 117 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 59 of 118.
2D holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| 2D | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view8,723 of 9,279 launches | Without the breakout9,278 of 9,279 launches | Last 18 months5,071 of 9,279 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 9,279280 hits | 8,723261 hits | 9,278279 hits | 5,071141 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 | 2.8 in 1001 in 36 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $303top tenth $12,749+ | $303 | $303 | $243 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -6.7%0.2 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -19.8%$60 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged 2D, 6 to 30 months old: 9,279 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 556 of 9,279 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (32.4% of the money): 9,278 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 5,071 of 9,279.
Surreal holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Surreal | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view657 of 678 launches | Without the breakout677 of 678 launches | Last 18 months368 of 678 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 67843 hits | 65742 hits | 67742 hits | 36822 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.3 in 1001 in 16 | 6.4 in 1001 in 16 | 6.2 in 1001 in 16 | 6.0 in 1001 in 17 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,271top tenth $50,389+ | $1,214 | $1,271 | $1,271 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +1.6%0.1 more in 100 | -1.6%0.1 fewer in 100 | -4.8%0.3 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -4.5%$57 less | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 6 to 30 months old: 678 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 21 of 678 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (12.0% of the money): 677 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 368 of 678.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when 2D + Surreal moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.