Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Niches / 2D + Visual Novel
2D + Visual Novel
Games tagged both 2D and Visual Novel: 846 indie paid launches, 27 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing 2D + Visual Novel priced $10 to $20, last 18 months, hiding samples under 100 launches. Lens figures exist at all prices only, so inside a price band the page shows the standard figures. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is level with 2D and trails Visual Novel; priced $10 to $20 it trails both its tags.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
2D + Visual Novel trails both its tags: 9.0 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 14.4 in 100 for 2D and 14.6 in 100 for Visual Novel.
That is 1 in 11, about 0.5 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this band uses the standard figures.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 145 games tagged both 2D and Visual Novel priced $10 to $20. 9.0 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 15.3 for 2D-only games and 17.1 for Visual Novel-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.
Both: 145 games priced $10 to $20; 9.0 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 11), typical first-year earnings $6,072.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 145 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet. The last 18 months lens is not computed for the outer parts, so this diagram uses the standard figures.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
2D + Visual Novel is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view750 of 846 launches | Without the breakout845 of 846 launches | Last 18 months459 of 846 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 84627 hits | 75023 hits | 84526 hits | 4599 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 3.2 in 1001 in 31 | 3.1 in 1001 in 32 | 3.1 in 1001 in 32 | 2.0 in 1001 in 50 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $927top tenth $21,859+ | $970 | $911 | $606 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -3.1%0.1 fewer in 100 | -3.1%0.1 fewer in 100 | -37.5%1.2 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +4.6%$43 more | -1.7%$16 less | -34.6%$321 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged both 2D and Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 846 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 96 of 846 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Until Then (29.8% of the money): 845 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 459 of 846.
2D holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| 2D | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view8,723 of 9,279 launches | Without the breakout9,278 of 9,279 launches | Last 18 months5,071 of 9,279 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 9,279280 hits | 8,723261 hits | 9,278279 hits | 5,071141 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 | 2.8 in 1001 in 36 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $303top tenth $12,749+ | $303 | $303 | $243 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -6.7%0.2 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -19.8%$60 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged 2D, 6 to 30 months old: 9,279 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 556 of 9,279 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (32.4% of the money): 9,278 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 5,071 of 9,279.
Visual Novel is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| Visual Novel | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,823 of 2,114 launches | Without the breakout2,113 of 2,114 launches | Last 18 months1,162 of 2,114 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 2,114130 hits | 1,823100 hits | 2,113129 hits | 1,16263 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.1 in 1001 in 16 | 5.5 in 1001 in 18 | 6.1 in 1001 in 16 | 5.4 in 1001 in 19 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,293top tenth $48,802+ | $1,214 | $1,287 | $910 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -9.8%0.6 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change | -11.5%0.7 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -6.1%$79 less | -0.5%$6 less | -29.6%$383 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Visual Novel, 6 to 30 months old: 2,114 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 291 of 2,114 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Until Then (7.5% of the money): 2,113 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,162 of 2,114.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when 2D + Visual Novel moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.