Comparables
LeadersTop earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewTicker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
3D + Aliens
Games tagged both 3D and Aliens: 70 indie paid launches, 2 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing 3D + Aliens priced under $5. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair trails 3D and beats Aliens; priced under $5 it is level with 3D and is level with Aliens.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
3D + Aliens is level with 3D and is level with Aliens: 0.0 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 0.4 in 100 for 3D and 0.0 in 100 for Aliens.
That is about 0.0 times the 0.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 37 games tagged both 3D and Aliens priced under $5. 0.0 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 0.4 for 3D-only games and 0.0 for Aliens-only games, so the mix is level with 3D alone and is level with Aliens alone.
Both: 37 games priced under $5; 0.0 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $99.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 37 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
3D + Aliens is one-hit market: Without the breakout moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view67 of 70 launches | Without the breakout69 of 70 launches | Last 18 months39 of 70 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 702 hits | 672 hits | 691 hits | 391 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.9 in 1001 in 34 | 3.0 in 1001 in 33 | 1.4 in 1001 in 71 | 2.6 in 1001 in 38 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $121top tenth $4,813+ | $142 | $121 | $101 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +3.4%0.1 more in 100 | -51.7%1.5 fewer in 100 | -10.3%0.3 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +17.4%$21 more | 0.0%no change | -16.5%$20 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Moves the answer | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both 3D and Aliens, 6 to 30 months old: 70 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 70 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown (77.9% of the money): 69 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 39 of 70.
3D holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| 3D | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view6,601 of 6,819 launches | Without the breakout6,818 of 6,819 launches | Last 18 months3,701 of 6,819 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 6,819286 hits | 6,601279 hits | 6,818285 hits | 3,701152 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 4.2 in 1001 in 24 | 4.2 in 1001 in 24 | 4.2 in 1001 in 24 | 4.1 in 1001 in 24 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $404top tenth $16,029+ | $405 | $404 | $404 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -2.4%0.1 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +0.2%$1 more | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged 3D, 6 to 30 months old: 6,819 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 218 of 6,819 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, R.E.P.O. (17.8% of the money): 6,818 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 3,701 of 6,819.
Aliens is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| Aliens | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view286 of 293 launches | Without the breakout292 of 293 launches | Last 18 months153 of 293 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 2936 hits | 2866 hits | 2925 hits | 1533 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.0 in 1001 in 50 | 2.1 in 1001 in 48 | 1.7 in 1001 in 59 | 2.0 in 1001 in 50 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $242top tenth $10,193+ | $243 | $242 | $162 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +5.0%0.1 more in 100 | -15.0%0.3 fewer in 100 | 0.0%no change |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +0.4%$1 more | 0.0%no change | -33.1%$80 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Aliens, 6 to 30 months old: 293 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 7 of 293 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown (32.5% of the money): 292 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 153 of 293.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when 3D + Aliens moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.