Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
3D + Physics
Games tagged both 3D and Physics: 385 indie paid launches, 26 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing 3D + Physics priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats 3D and is level with Physics; priced $10 to $20 it beats both its tags.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
3D + Physics beats both its tags: 19.2 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 14.3 in 100 for 3D and 17.5 in 100 for Physics.
That is about 1.0 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 52 games tagged both 3D and Physics priced $10 to $20. 19.2 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 14.1 for 3D-only games and 16.8 for Physics-only games, so games with both tags did better than games with either tag alone.
Both: 52 games priced $10 to $20; 19.2 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $7,932.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 52 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
3D + Physics is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view377 of 385 launches | Without the breakout384 of 385 launches | Last 18 months213 of 385 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 38526 hits | 37726 hits | 38425 hits | 21316 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.8 in 1001 in 15 | 6.9 in 1001 in 14 | 6.5 in 1001 in 15 | 7.5 in 1001 in 13 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $425top tenth $29,971+ | $425 | $425 | $546 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +1.5%0.1 more in 100 | -4.4%0.3 fewer in 100 | +10.3%0.7 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | +28.5%$121 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged both 3D and Physics, 6 to 30 months old: 385 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 8 of 385 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, R.E.P.O. (49.2% of the money): 384 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 213 of 385.
3D holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| 3D | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view6,601 of 6,819 launches | Without the breakout6,818 of 6,819 launches | Last 18 months3,701 of 6,819 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 6,819286 hits | 6,601279 hits | 6,818285 hits | 3,701152 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 4.2 in 1001 in 24 | 4.2 in 1001 in 24 | 4.2 in 1001 in 24 | 4.1 in 1001 in 24 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $404top tenth $16,029+ | $405 | $404 | $404 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -2.4%0.1 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +0.2%$1 more | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged 3D, 6 to 30 months old: 6,819 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 218 of 6,819 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, R.E.P.O. (17.8% of the money): 6,818 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 3,701 of 6,819.
Physics holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Physics | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,277 of 1,303 launches | Without the breakout1,302 of 1,303 launches | Last 18 months723 of 1,303 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,30384 hits | 1,27783 hits | 1,30283 hits | 72352 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.4 in 1001 in 16 | 6.5 in 1001 in 15 | 6.4 in 1001 in 16 | 7.2 in 1001 in 14 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $527top tenth $34,097+ | $564 | $527 | $606 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +1.6%0.1 more in 100 | 0.0%no change | +12.5%0.8 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +7.0%$37 more | 0.0%no change | +15.0%$79 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Physics, 6 to 30 months old: 1,303 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 26 of 1,303 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, R.E.P.O. (29.2% of the money): 1,302 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 723 of 1,303.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when 3D + Physics moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.