Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Abstract + Surreal
Games tagged both Abstract and Surreal: 59 indie paid launches, 2 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Abstract + Surreal priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats Abstract and trails Surreal; priced $10 to $20 it trails both its tags.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Abstract + Surreal trails both its tags: 1 of its 13 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 14.3 in 100 for Abstract and 19.4 in 100 for Surreal.
Small sample: 13 launches, 1 hits.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 13 games tagged both Abstract and Surreal priced $10 to $20. 7.7 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 16.7 for Abstract-only games and 21.3 for Surreal-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.
Both: 13 games priced $10 to $20; 7.7 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 13), typical first-year earnings $7,527.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 13 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkAudience-sensitive +2. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: moves the answer. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Abstract + Surreal is audience-sensitive +2: West-facing view moves the answer by more than a quarter, and 2 more lenses too. It holds in 0 of 3.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view58 of 59 launches | Without the breakout58 of 59 launches | Last 18 months44 of 59 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 592 hits | 581 hits | 581 hits | 442 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 3.4 in 1001 in 29 | 1.7 in 1001 in 59 | 1.7 in 1001 in 59 | 4.5 in 1001 in 22 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,415top tenth $46,746+ | $1,415 | $1,415 | $1,618 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -50.0%1.7 fewer in 100 | -50.0%1.7 fewer in 100 | +32.4%1.1 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | +14.3%$203 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Moves the answer | Moves the answer | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Abstract and Surreal, 6 to 30 months old: 59 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 59 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Monument Valley 3 (45.1% of the money): 58 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 44 of 59.
Abstract is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer by more than a quarter. It holds in 2 of 3.
| Abstract | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view468 of 492 launches | Without the breakout491 of 492 launches | Last 18 months290 of 492 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 49211 hits | 46810 hits | 49110 hits | 2909 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2.2 in 1001 in 45 | 2.1 in 1001 in 48 | 2.0 in 1001 in 50 | 3.1 in 1001 in 32 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $424top tenth $8,210+ | $425 | $421 | $606 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | -4.5%0.1 fewer in 100 | -9.1%0.2 fewer in 100 | +40.9%0.9 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | +0.2%$1 more | -0.7%$3 less | +42.9%$182 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Abstract, 6 to 30 months old: 492 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 24 of 492 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Mycopunk (19.3% of the money): 491 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 290 of 492.
Surreal holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.
| Surreal | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view657 of 678 launches | Without the breakout677 of 678 launches | Last 18 months368 of 678 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 67843 hits | 65742 hits | 67742 hits | 36822 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 6.3 in 1001 in 16 | 6.4 in 1001 in 16 | 6.2 in 1001 in 16 | 6.0 in 1001 in 17 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,271top tenth $50,389+ | $1,214 | $1,271 | $1,271 |
| Chance against standard | the yardstick | +1.6%0.1 more in 100 | -1.6%0.1 fewer in 100 | -4.8%0.3 fewer in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the yardstick | -4.5%$57 less | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Surreal, 6 to 30 months old: 678 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 21 of 678 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, INDIKA (12.0% of the money): 677 launches left.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 368 of 678.
A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Abstract + Surreal moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.