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Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

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on 3 Oct 2026

Niches / Action-Adventure + Casual

Niche

Action-Adventure + Casual

Games tagged both Action-Adventure and Casual: 780 indie paid launches, 9 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

  • A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
  • Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
  • From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Showing Action-Adventure + Casual priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair trails Action-Adventure and is about level with Casual; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Action-Adventure and is too small to compare with Casual.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Action-Adventure + Casual is too small to compare with Action-Adventure and is too small to compare with Casual: 3 of its 67 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 14.5 in 100 for Action-Adventure and 11.4 in 100 for Casual.

Small sample: 67 launches, 3 hits.

TIEA tie
14.5in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds14.5 in 100
Typical earnings$5,932
Launches545 / 79 hits
Pair against ittoo few hits to compare
TIEA tie
This pairAction-Adventure + Casual
3 of 67launches earned
$100k+ small
Odds3 of 67 launches
Typical earnings$2,127
Launches67 / 3 hits
Expected17.6 in 100
TIETied
Tag twomood tagCasual
11.4in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds11.4 in 100
Typical earnings$2,971
Launches1,009 / 115 hits
Pair against ittoo few hits to compare
All indie launches $10 to $20: 17.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $8,234, from 4,301 launches.each block is 1 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Casual is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 67 games tagged both Action-Adventure and Casual priced $10 to $20. 3 of 67 of them earned $100k+, against 15.9 in 100 for Action-Adventure-only games and 11.9 in 100 for Casual-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Action-Adventure alone and is too small to compare with Casual alone.

Both: 67 games priced $10 to $20; 3 of 67 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $2,127.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 67 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Goat Simulator 3leads this pair43.5%
PairGoat Simulator 343.5%
Action-AdventureAI LIMIT7.5%
CasualHouse Flipper 23.8%
CheckOne game over half?no
NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview
ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Action-Adventure + Casual

What this card holds

  • Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
  • One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
  • Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready
Same price banddata ready
Launched within a year of each otherplanned
Earned $100k+planned
The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

  • Goat Simulator 3 earned 43.5% of the estimated first-year money of the 780 Action-Adventure + Casual launches.
  • Action-Adventure is led by AI LIMIT, with 7.5% of its money.
  • Casual is led by House Flipper 2, with 3.8% of its money.
  • No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Action-Adventure + Casual holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Action-Adventure + Casual through every lens, all prices
This pairBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view736 of 780 launchesWithout the breakout779 of 780 launchesLast 18 months217 of 780 launches
Launches counted7809 hits7369 hits7798 hits2173 hits
Earned $100k+1.2 in 1001 in 871.2 in 1001 in 821.0 in 1001 in 973 of 217too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings$152top tenth $4,170+$157$152$134
Chance against standardthe base+6.0%0.1 more in 100-11.0%0.1 fewer in 100+19.8%0.2 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standardthe base+3.3%$5 more0.0%no change-11.8%$18 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Action-Adventure and Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 780 launches.

Launches counted
7809 hits
Earned $100k+
1.2 in 1001 in 87
Typical first-year earnings
$152top tenth $4,170+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 44 of 780 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
7369 hits
Earned $100k+
1.2 in 1001 in 82
Typical first-year earnings
$157
Chance against standard
+6.0%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard
+3.3%$5 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Goat Simulator 3 (43.5% of the money): 779 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
7798 hits
Earned $100k+
1.0 in 1001 in 97
Typical first-year earnings
$152
Chance against standard
-11.0%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 217 of 780.

Launches counted
2173 hits
Earned $100k+
3 of 217too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
$134
Chance against standard
+19.8%0.2 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard
-11.8%$18 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged both Action-Adventure and Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 780 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 44 of 780 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Goat Simulator 3 (43.5% of the money): 779 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 217 of 780.

Action-Adventure is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Action-Adventure through every lens, all prices
Action-AdventureBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view3,251 of 3,405 launchesWithout the breakout3,404 of 3,405 launchesLast 18 months879 of 3,405 launches
Launches counted3,405167 hits3,251159 hits3,404166 hits87955 hits
Earned $100k+4.9 in 1001 in 204.9 in 1001 in 204.9 in 1001 in 216.3 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings$376top tenth $21,454+$383$376$383
Chance against standardthe base-0.3%no change-0.6%no change+27.6%1.4 more in 100
Typical against standardthe base+1.9%$7 more0.0%no change+1.9%$7 more
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsMoves the answer
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Action-Adventure, 12 to 36 months old: 3,405 launches.

Launches counted
3,405167 hits
Earned $100k+
4.9 in 1001 in 20
Typical first-year earnings
$376top tenth $21,454+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 154 of 3,405 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
3,251159 hits
Earned $100k+
4.9 in 1001 in 20
Typical first-year earnings
$383
Chance against standard
-0.3%no change
Typical against standard
+1.9%$7 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, AI LIMIT (7.5% of the money): 3,404 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
3,404166 hits
Earned $100k+
4.9 in 1001 in 21
Typical first-year earnings
$376
Chance against standard
-0.6%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 879 of 3,405.

Launches counted
87955 hits
Earned $100k+
6.3 in 1001 in 16
Typical first-year earnings
$383
Chance against standard
+27.6%1.4 more in 100
Typical against standard
+1.9%$7 more
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Action-Adventure, 12 to 36 months old: 3,405 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 154 of 3,405 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, AI LIMIT (7.5% of the money): 3,404 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 879 of 3,405.

Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual through every lens, all prices
CasualBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view9,211 of 9,751 launchesWithout the breakout9,750 of 9,751 launchesLast 18 months2,939 of 9,751 launches
Launches counted9,751259 hits9,211240 hits9,750258 hits2,939107 hits
Earned $100k+2.7 in 1001 in 382.6 in 1001 in 382.6 in 1001 in 383.6 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings$253top tenth $8,786+$257$253$230
Chance against standardthe base-1.9%0.1 fewer in 100-0.4%no change+37.1%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standardthe base+1.6%$4 more0.0%no change-9.1%$23 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsMoves the answer
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,751 launches.

Launches counted
9,751259 hits
Earned $100k+
2.7 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings
$253top tenth $8,786+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 540 of 9,751 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
9,211240 hits
Earned $100k+
2.6 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings
$257
Chance against standard
-1.9%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
+1.6%$4 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.8% of the money): 9,750 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
9,750258 hits
Earned $100k+
2.6 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings
$253
Chance against standard
-0.4%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,939 of 9,751.

Launches counted
2,939107 hits
Earned $100k+
3.6 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings
$230
Chance against standard
+37.1%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standard
-9.1%$23 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,751 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 540 of 9,751 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.8% of the money): 9,750 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,939 of 9,751.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Action-Adventure + Casual moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.