Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
Niches / Adventure / Visual Novel
Adventure + Visual Novel: a typical launch earns $1,516 in its first year
That is the median of 429 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 51 of 846 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 78.1 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 30% on the year before: 660 against 509.
- China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese
- Price
- $1,516 median of 429 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- −30.6% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 660 509 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 1,374 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 4,354 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 0.85%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.62% to 1.06% | 130 ranked of 1,375 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #274 of 7,193pairs on this board |
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.
| 0.67xhits against expected | 0.54x to 0.82x | 846 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #6,274 of 6,324pairs on this board |
| Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. | +8%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam | −6% to +20% | 208 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months | #1,175 of 2,361pairs on this board |
| Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. | +2%review growth against same-age games | −6% to +11% | 208 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025 | #709 of 2,461pairs on this board |
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 846
- Hit rate
- 6.0%5.0% to 10.9%
- Expected rate
- 9.2%
- Against expected
- 0.67x0.54x to 0.82x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
845 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $8
- Median
- $1,293
- Top tenth
- $57,533
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- +30%
- Against Steam
- −5%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases
Parent tags
- AdventureNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
- Visual NovelGenre pageRanked on every board, with its best pairs.
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
Until Then (opens the Steam store)2024 · 15,814 reviews, 96% positiveest. $6.2M
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty (opens the Steam store)2024 · 49,862 reviews, 94% positiveest. $5.8M
WITCH ON THE HOLY NIGHT (opens the Steam store)2023 · 7,312 reviews, 98% positiveest. $4.1M
Urban Myth Dissolution Center (opens the Steam store)2025 · 5,989 reviews, 88% positiveest. $1.9M
The Incident at Galley House (opens the Steam store)2026 · 4,234 reviews, 94% positiveest. $1.5M
Road to Empress I (opens the Steam store)2025 · 11,903 reviews, 86% positiveest. $1.4M
Yunyun Syndrome!? Rhythm Psychosis (opens the Steam store)2026 · 4,003 reviews, 91% positiveest. $1.3M
No Case Should Remain Unsolved (opens the Steam store)2024 · 10,382 reviews, 96% positiveest. $1.3M
More with Adventure
pairs with Adventure- Adventure + Cozy$32,10838 launches priced, 93 releases in 12 months
- Adventure + Narrative$12,85033 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
- Adventure + LGBTQ+$7,36637 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
- Adventure + Online Co-Op$6,34186 launches priced, 187 releases in 12 months
- Adventure + Base Building$5,35342 launches priced, 47 releases in 12 months
- Adventure + Building$4,85745 launches priced, 62 releases in 12 months
More with Visual Novel
pairs with Visual Novel- Visual Novel + FMV$65,06531 launches priced, 48 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + LGBTQ+$6,05083 launches priced, 159 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Detective$5,29368 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Investigation$4,88542 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Immersive Sim$4,55364 launches priced, 115 releases in 12 months
- Visual Novel + Romance$3,639179 launches priced, 277 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
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