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on 3 Oct 2026

Niches / Aliens + Casual

Niche

Aliens + Casual

Games tagged both Aliens and Casual: 75 indie paid launches, 0 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

  • A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
  • Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
  • From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Showing Aliens + Casual priced under $5.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?Under $5

Aliens + Casual is too small to compare with Aliens and is too small to compare with Casual: 0 of its 53 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 0 of 145 launches for Aliens and 0.5 in 100 for Casual.

Small sample: 53 launches, 0 hits.

TIEA tie
Tag oneAliens
0 of 145launches earned
$100k+ small
Odds0 of 145 launches
Typical earnings$84
Launches145 / 0 hits
Pair against ittoo few hits to compare
TIEA tie
This pairAliens + Casual
0 of 53launches earned
$100k+ small
Odds0 of 53 launches
Typical earnings$84
Launches53 / 0 hits
Expected0.5 in 100
TIEA tie
Tag twomood tagCasual
0.5in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds1 in 217
Typical earnings$117
Launches6,289 / 29 hits
Pair against ittoo few hits to compare
All indie launches under $5: 0.5 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 219), typical $169, from 13,780 launches.each block is 0.5 in 100 all indie at under $5Casual is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page
All prices75 in pairUnder $553 in pair$5 to $1013 in pair$10 to $205: too few$20 to $404: too few
What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 53 games tagged both Aliens and Casual priced under $5. 0 of 53 of them earned $100k+, against 0 of 92 for Aliens-only games and 0.5 in 100 for Casual-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Aliens alone and is too small to compare with Casual alone.

Both: 53 games priced under $5; 0 of 53 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $84.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 53 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

KANADEleads this pair34.1%
PairKANADE34.1%
AliensLevel Zero: Extraction25.5%
CasualHouse Flipper 23.8%
CheckOne game over half?no
NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 1 of 3, 2 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview
ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Aliens + Casual

What this card holds

  • Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
  • One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
  • Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready
Same price banddata ready
Launched within a year of each otherplanned
Earned $100k+planned
The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

  • KANADE earned 34.1% of the estimated first-year money of the 75 Aliens + Casual launches.
  • Aliens is led by Level Zero: Extraction, with 25.5% of its money.
  • Casual is led by House Flipper 2, with 3.8% of its money.
  • No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Aliens + Casual holds in Without the breakout; too few to tell in West-facing view and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Aliens + Casual through every lens, all prices
This pairBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view72 of 75 launchesWithout the breakout74 of 75 launchesLast 18 months16 of 75 launches
Launches counted750 hits720 hits740 hits160 hits
Earned $100k+0 of 75too few for a rate0 of 72too few for a rate0 of 74too few for a rate0 of 16too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings$113top tenth $3,602+$153$113$153
Chance against standardthe base0.0%no change; too few to tell0.0%no change0.0%no change; too few to tell
Typical against standardthe base+35.4%$40 more; too few to tell0.0%no change+35.4%$40 more; too few to tell
Does it hold?The base viewToo few to tellHoldsToo few to tell
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Aliens and Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 75 launches.

Launches counted
750 hits
Earned $100k+
0 of 75too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
$113top tenth $3,602+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 75 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
720 hits
Earned $100k+
0 of 72too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
$153
Chance against standard
0.0%no change; too few to tell
Typical against standard
+35.4%$40 more; too few to tell
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, KANADE (34.1% of the money): 74 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
740 hits
Earned $100k+
0 of 74too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
$113
Chance against standard
0.0%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 16 of 75.

Launches counted
160 hits
Earned $100k+
0 of 16too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
$153
Chance against standard
0.0%no change; too few to tell
Typical against standard
+35.4%$40 more; too few to tell
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged both Aliens and Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 75 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 75 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, KANADE (34.1% of the money): 74 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 16 of 75.

Aliens holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Aliens through every lens, all prices
AliensBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view262 of 269 launchesWithout the breakout268 of 269 launchesLast 18 months72 of 269 launches
Launches counted2694 hits2624 hits2683 hits720 hits
Earned $100k+4 of 269too few for a rate4 of 262too few for a rate3 of 268too few for a rate0 of 72too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings$253top tenth $10,468+$264$253$171
Chance against standardthe base+2.7%no change; too few to tell-24.7%0.4 fewer in 100-100.0%1.5 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standardthe base+4.3%$11 more0.0%no change-32.4%$82 less; too few to tell
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsToo few to tell
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Aliens, 12 to 36 months old: 269 launches.

Launches counted
2694 hits
Earned $100k+
4 of 269too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
$253top tenth $10,468+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 7 of 269 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
2624 hits
Earned $100k+
4 of 262too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
$264
Chance against standard
+2.7%no change; too few to tell
Typical against standard
+4.3%$11 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Level Zero: Extraction (25.5% of the money): 268 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
2683 hits
Earned $100k+
3 of 268too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
$253
Chance against standard
-24.7%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 72 of 269.

Launches counted
720 hits
Earned $100k+
0 of 72too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings
$171
Chance against standard
-100.0%1.5 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard
-32.4%$82 less; too few to tell
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Aliens, 12 to 36 months old: 269 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 7 of 269 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Level Zero: Extraction (25.5% of the money): 268 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 72 of 269.

Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual through every lens, all prices
CasualBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view9,211 of 9,751 launchesWithout the breakout9,750 of 9,751 launchesLast 18 months2,939 of 9,751 launches
Launches counted9,751259 hits9,211240 hits9,750258 hits2,939107 hits
Earned $100k+2.7 in 1001 in 382.6 in 1001 in 382.6 in 1001 in 383.6 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings$253top tenth $8,786+$257$253$230
Chance against standardthe base-1.9%0.1 fewer in 100-0.4%no change+37.1%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standardthe base+1.6%$4 more0.0%no change-9.1%$23 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsMoves the answer
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,751 launches.

Launches counted
9,751259 hits
Earned $100k+
2.7 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings
$253top tenth $8,786+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 540 of 9,751 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
9,211240 hits
Earned $100k+
2.6 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings
$257
Chance against standard
-1.9%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
+1.6%$4 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.8% of the money): 9,750 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
9,750258 hits
Earned $100k+
2.6 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings
$253
Chance against standard
-0.4%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,939 of 9,751.

Launches counted
2,939107 hits
Earned $100k+
3.6 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings
$230
Chance against standard
+37.1%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standard
-9.1%$23 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,751 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 540 of 9,751 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.8% of the money): 9,750 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,939 of 9,751.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Aliens + Casual moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.