Niche

Arcade + Colorful

Games tagged both Arcade and Colorful: 608 indie paid launches, 12 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Arcade + Colorful priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Arcade and is about level with Colorful; priced $10 to $20 it trails both its tags.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Arcade + Colorful trails both its tags: 8.6 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 11.7 in 100 for Arcade and 17.5 in 100 for Colorful.

That is 1 in 12, about 0.4 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.

2NDRunner-up

Tag oneArcade

11.7in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds11.7 in 100

Typical earnings$5,057

Launches350 / 41 hits

Pair trails by3.1 in 100

3RDThird

This pairArcade + Colorful

8.6in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds1 in 12

$1k+67 in 100

$10k+38 in 100

Launches58 / 5 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

1STWinner

Tag twomood tagColorful

17.5in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds17.5 in 100

Typical earnings$8,393

Launches372 / 65 hits

Pair trails by8.9 in 100

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Colorful is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices608 in pair Under $5408 in pair $5 to $10123 in pair $10 to $2058 in pair $20 to $4019 in pair

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 58 games tagged both Arcade and Colorful priced $10 to $20. 8.6 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 12.3 in 100 for Arcade-only games and 19.1 in 100 for Colorful-only games, so games with both tags did worse than games with either tag alone.

Both: 58 games priced $10 to $20; 8.6 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 12), odds by size $1k+ 67 in 100 · $10k+ 38 in 100 · $100k+ 9 in 100.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 58 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Rift of the NecroDancerleads this pair34.9%

PairRift of the NecroDancer34.9%

ArcadeBALL x PIT14.9%

ColorfulHello Kitty Island Adventure10.6%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Arcade + Colorful

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Rift of the NecroDancer earned 34.9% of the estimated first-year money of the 608 Arcade + Colorful launches.
Arcade is led by BALL x PIT, with 14.9% of its money.
Colorful is led by Hello Kitty Island Adventure, with 10.6% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Arcade + Colorful holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Arcade + Colorful through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view607 of 608 launches	Without the breakout607 of 608 launches	Last 18 months168 of 608 launches
Launches counted	60812 hits	60712 hits	60711 hits	1683 hits
Earned $100k+	2.0 in 1001 in 51	2.0 in 1001 in 51	1.8 in 1001 in 55	3 of 168too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$162top tenth $7,052+	$162	$162	$181
Chance against standard	the base	+0.2%no change	-8.2%0.2 fewer in 100	-9.5%0.2 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	0.0%no change	+11.7%$19 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Arcade and Colorful, 12 to 36 months old: 608 launches.

Launches counted: 60812 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.0 in 1001 in 51
Typical first-year earnings: $162top tenth $7,052+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 608 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 60712 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.0 in 1001 in 51
Typical first-year earnings: $162
Chance against standard: +0.2%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Rift of the NecroDancer (34.9% of the money): 607 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 60711 hits
Earned $100k+: 1.8 in 1001 in 55
Typical first-year earnings: $162
Chance against standard: -8.2%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 168 of 608.

Launches counted: 1683 hits
Earned $100k+: 3 of 168too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $181
Chance against standard: -9.5%0.2 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: +11.7%$19 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Arcade and Colorful, 12 to 36 months old: 608 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 608 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Rift of the NecroDancer (34.9% of the money): 607 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 168 of 608.

Arcade is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Arcade through every lens, all prices
Arcade	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view3,602 of 3,624 launches	Without the breakout3,623 of 3,624 launches	Last 18 months1,016 of 3,624 launches
Launches counted	3,62489 hits	3,60288 hits	3,62388 hits	1,01634 hits
Earned $100k+	2.5 in 1001 in 41	2.4 in 1001 in 41	2.4 in 1001 in 41	3.3 in 1001 in 30
Typical first-year earnings	$221top tenth $8,880+	$221	$221	$218
Chance against standard	the base	-0.5%no change	-1.1%no change	+36.3%0.9 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	0.0%no change	-1.4%$3 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Arcade, 12 to 36 months old: 3,624 launches.

Launches counted: 3,62489 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.5 in 1001 in 41
Typical first-year earnings: $221top tenth $8,880+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 22 of 3,624 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 3,60288 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.4 in 1001 in 41
Typical first-year earnings: $221
Chance against standard: -0.5%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, BALL x PIT (14.9% of the money): 3,623 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 3,62388 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.4 in 1001 in 41
Typical first-year earnings: $221
Chance against standard: -1.1%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,016 of 3,624.

Launches counted: 1,01634 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.3 in 1001 in 30
Typical first-year earnings: $218
Chance against standard: +36.3%0.9 more in 100
Typical against standard: -1.4%$3 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Arcade, 12 to 36 months old: 3,624 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 22 of 3,624 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, BALL x PIT (14.9% of the money): 3,623 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,016 of 3,624.

Colorful is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Colorful through every lens, all prices
Colorful	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view2,825 of 2,873 launches	Without the breakout2,872 of 2,873 launches	Last 18 months804 of 2,873 launches
Launches counted	2,873138 hits	2,825133 hits	2,872137 hits	80443 hits
Earned $100k+	4.8 in 1001 in 21	4.7 in 1001 in 21	4.8 in 1001 in 21	5.3 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings	$327top tenth $18,135+	$338	$327	$326
Chance against standard	the base	-2.0%0.1 fewer in 100	-0.7%no change	+11.3%0.5 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+3.4%$11 more	0.0%no change	-0.3%$1 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Colorful, 12 to 36 months old: 2,873 launches.

Launches counted: 2,873138 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.8 in 1001 in 21
Typical first-year earnings: $327top tenth $18,135+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 48 of 2,873 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 2,825133 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.7 in 1001 in 21
Typical first-year earnings: $338
Chance against standard: -2.0%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +3.4%$11 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (10.6% of the money): 2,872 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 2,872137 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.8 in 1001 in 21
Typical first-year earnings: $327
Chance against standard: -0.7%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 804 of 2,873.

Launches counted: 80443 hits
Earned $100k+: 5.3 in 1001 in 19
Typical first-year earnings: $326
Chance against standard: +11.3%0.5 more in 100
Typical against standard: -0.3%$1 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Colorful, 12 to 36 months old: 2,873 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 48 of 2,873 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (10.6% of the money): 2,872 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 804 of 2,873.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Arcade + Colorful moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.