Niche

Arcade + Difficult

Games tagged both Arcade and Difficult: 164 indie paid launches, 8 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Arcade + Difficult priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair is about level with Arcade and is about level with Difficult; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Arcade and is too small to compare with Difficult.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Arcade + Difficult is too small to compare with Arcade and is too small to compare with Difficult: 6 of its 16 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 11.7 in 100 for Arcade and 27.9 in 100 for Difficult.

Small sample: 16 launches, 6 hits.

TIETied

Tag oneArcade

11.7in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds11.7 in 100

Typical earnings$5,057

Launches350 / 41 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairArcade + Difficult

6 of 16launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds6 of 16 launches

$1k+15 of 16 launches

$10k+9 of 16 launches

Launches16 / 6 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twomood tagDifficult

27.9in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds27.9 in 100

Typical earnings$29,553

Launches183 / 51 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Difficult is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices164 in pair Under $5103 in pair $5 to $1041 in pair $10 to $2016 in pair$20 to $404: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 16 games tagged both Arcade and Difficult priced $10 to $20. 6 of 16 of them earned $100k+, against 10.5 in 100 for Arcade-only games and 26.9 in 100 for Difficult-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Arcade alone and is too small to compare with Difficult alone.

Both: 16 games priced $10 to $20; 6 of 16 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 15 of 16 launches · $10k+ 9 of 16 launches · $100k+ 6 of 16 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 16 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

UFO 50leads this pair45.5%

PairUFO 5045.5%

ArcadeBALL x PIT14.9%

DifficultHollow Knight: Silksong67.4%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Arcade + Difficult

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

UFO 50 earned 45.5% of the estimated first-year money of the 164 Arcade + Difficult launches.
Arcade is led by BALL x PIT, with 14.9% of its money.
Difficult is led by Hollow Knight: Silksong, with 67.4% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Arcade + Difficult holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Arcade + Difficult through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view163 of 164 launches	Without the breakout163 of 164 launches	Last 18 months40 of 164 launches
Launches counted	1648 hits	1638 hits	1637 hits	402 hits
Earned $100k+	4.9 in 1001 in 21	4.9 in 1001 in 20	4.3 in 1001 in 23	2 of 40too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$574top tenth $15,561+	$574	$569	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+0.6%no change	-12.0%0.6 fewer in 100	+2.5%0.1 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	-0.9%$5 less	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Arcade and Difficult, 12 to 36 months old: 164 launches.

Launches counted: 1648 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.9 in 1001 in 21
Typical first-year earnings: $574top tenth $15,561+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 164 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1638 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.9 in 1001 in 20
Typical first-year earnings: $574
Chance against standard: +0.6%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, UFO 50 (45.5% of the money): 163 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1637 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.3 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings: $569
Chance against standard: -12.0%0.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.9%$5 less

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 40 of 164.

Launches counted: 402 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 40too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +2.5%0.1 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Arcade and Difficult, 12 to 36 months old: 164 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 164 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, UFO 50 (45.5% of the money): 163 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 40 of 164.

Arcade is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Arcade through every lens, all prices
Arcade	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view3,602 of 3,624 launches	Without the breakout3,623 of 3,624 launches	Last 18 months1,016 of 3,624 launches
Launches counted	3,62489 hits	3,60288 hits	3,62388 hits	1,01634 hits
Earned $100k+	2.5 in 1001 in 41	2.4 in 1001 in 41	2.4 in 1001 in 41	3.3 in 1001 in 30
Typical first-year earnings	$221top tenth $8,880+	$221	$221	$218
Chance against standard	the base	-0.5%no change	-1.1%no change	+36.3%0.9 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	0.0%no change	-1.4%$3 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Arcade, 12 to 36 months old: 3,624 launches.

Launches counted: 3,62489 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.5 in 1001 in 41
Typical first-year earnings: $221top tenth $8,880+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 22 of 3,624 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 3,60288 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.4 in 1001 in 41
Typical first-year earnings: $221
Chance against standard: -0.5%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, BALL x PIT (14.9% of the money): 3,623 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 3,62388 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.4 in 1001 in 41
Typical first-year earnings: $221
Chance against standard: -1.1%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,016 of 3,624.

Launches counted: 1,01634 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.3 in 1001 in 30
Typical first-year earnings: $218
Chance against standard: +36.3%0.9 more in 100
Typical against standard: -1.4%$3 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Arcade, 12 to 36 months old: 3,624 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 22 of 3,624 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, BALL x PIT (14.9% of the money): 3,623 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,016 of 3,624.

Difficult is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money. It holds in West-facing view and Last 18 months.

Difficult through every lens, all prices
Difficult	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view959 of 974 launches	Without the breakout973 of 974 launches	Last 18 months251 of 974 launches
Launches counted	97472 hits	95970 hits	97371 hits	25118 hits
Earned $100k+	7.4 in 1001 in 14	7.3 in 1001 in 14	7.3 in 1001 in 14	7.2 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings	$1,035top tenth $68,310+	$1,091	$1,029	$1,181
Chance against standard	the base	-1.3%0.1 fewer in 100	-1.3%0.1 fewer in 100	-3.0%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+5.4%$56 more	-0.6%$6 less	+14.1%$146 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Moves the answer	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Difficult, 12 to 36 months old: 974 launches.

Launches counted: 97472 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.4 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $1,035top tenth $68,310+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 15 of 974 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 95970 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.3 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $1,091
Chance against standard: -1.3%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +5.4%$56 more

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (67.4% of the money): 973 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 97371 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.3 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $1,029
Chance against standard: -1.3%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.6%$6 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 251 of 974.

Launches counted: 25118 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.2 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $1,181
Chance against standard: -3.0%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +14.1%$146 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Difficult, 12 to 36 months old: 974 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 15 of 974 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (67.4% of the money): 973 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 251 of 974.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Arcade + Difficult moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.