Niche

Arcade + Sandbox

Games tagged both Arcade and Sandbox: 72 indie paid launches, 4 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Arcade + Sandbox priced $10 to $20.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Arcade + Sandbox is too small to compare with Arcade and is too small to compare with Sandbox: 3 of its 12 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 11.7 in 100 for Arcade and 33.7 in 100 for Sandbox.

Small sample: 12 launches, 3 hits.

TIETied

Tag oneArcade

11.7in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds11.7 in 100

Typical earnings$5,057

Launches350 / 41 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairArcade + Sandbox

3 of 12launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds3 of 12 launches

$1k+11 of 12 launches

$10k+8 of 12 launches

Launches12 / 3 hits

Expected20.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoSandbox

33.7in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds33.7 in 100

Typical earnings$32,569

Launches362 / 122 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices72 in pair Under $537 in pair $5 to $1023 in pair $10 to $2012 in pair$20 to $40no launches

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 12 games tagged both Arcade and Sandbox priced $10 to $20. 3 of 12 of them earned $100k+, against 11.2 in 100 for Arcade-only games and 34.0 in 100 for Sandbox-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Arcade alone and is too small to compare with Sandbox alone.

Both: 12 games priced $10 to $20; 3 of 12 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 11 of 12 launches · $10k+ 8 of 12 launches · $100k+ 3 of 12 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 12 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Path of Kung Fuleads this pair51.9%

PairPath of Kung Fu51.9%

ArcadeBALL x PIT14.9%

SandboxManor Lords22.4%

CheckOne game over half?yes

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Arcade + Sandbox

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Path of Kung Fu earned 51.9% of the estimated first-year money of the 72 Arcade + Sandbox launches.
Arcade is led by BALL x PIT, with 14.9% of its money.
Sandbox is led by Manor Lords, with 22.4% of its money.
One game holds over half of this pair's money: read every figure here as that game's story.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Arcade + Sandbox is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money.

Arcade + Sandbox through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view71 of 72 launches	Without the breakout71 of 72 launches	Last 18 months21 of 72 launches
Launches counted	724 hits	713 hits	713 hits	212 hits
Earned $100k+	4 of 72too few for a rate	3 of 71too few for a rate	3 of 71too few for a rate	2 of 21too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+	19 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 42 in 100	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	-23.9%1.3 fewer in 100; too few to tell	-23.9%1.3 fewer in 100	+71.4%4.0 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Moves the answer	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Arcade and Sandbox, 12 to 36 months old: 72 launches.

Launches counted: 724 hits
Earned $100k+: 4 of 72too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: 19 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 42 in 100
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 72 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 713 hits
Earned $100k+: 3 of 71too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -23.9%1.3 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Kung Fu (51.9% of the money): 71 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 713 hits
Earned $100k+: 3 of 71too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -23.9%1.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 21 of 72.

Launches counted: 212 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 21too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +71.4%4.0 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Arcade and Sandbox, 12 to 36 months old: 72 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 72 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Kung Fu (51.9% of the money): 71 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 21 of 72.

Arcade is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Arcade through every lens, all prices
Arcade	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view3,602 of 3,624 launches	Without the breakout3,623 of 3,624 launches	Last 18 months1,016 of 3,624 launches
Launches counted	3,62489 hits	3,60288 hits	3,62388 hits	1,01634 hits
Earned $100k+	2.5 in 1001 in 41	2.4 in 1001 in 41	2.4 in 1001 in 41	3.3 in 1001 in 30
Typical first-year earnings	$221top tenth $8,880+	$221	$221	$218
Chance against standard	the base	-0.5%no change	-1.1%no change	+36.3%0.9 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	0.0%no change	-1.4%$3 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Arcade, 12 to 36 months old: 3,624 launches.

Launches counted: 3,62489 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.5 in 1001 in 41
Typical first-year earnings: $221top tenth $8,880+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 22 of 3,624 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 3,60288 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.4 in 1001 in 41
Typical first-year earnings: $221
Chance against standard: -0.5%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, BALL x PIT (14.9% of the money): 3,623 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 3,62388 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.4 in 1001 in 41
Typical first-year earnings: $221
Chance against standard: -1.1%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,016 of 3,624.

Launches counted: 1,01634 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.3 in 1001 in 30
Typical first-year earnings: $218
Chance against standard: +36.3%0.9 more in 100
Typical against standard: -1.4%$3 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Arcade, 12 to 36 months old: 3,624 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 22 of 3,624 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, BALL x PIT (14.9% of the money): 3,623 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,016 of 3,624.

Sandbox is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Sandbox through every lens, all prices
Sandbox	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view1,187 of 1,229 launches	Without the breakout1,228 of 1,229 launches	Last 18 months380 of 1,229 launches
Launches counted	1,229210 hits	1,187198 hits	1,228209 hits	38062 hits
Earned $100k+	17.1 in 100	16.7 in 100	17.0 in 100	16.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$2,212top tenth $299,853+	$2,212	$2,212	$1,950
Chance against standard	the base	-2.4%0.4 fewer in 100	-0.4%0.1 fewer in 100	-4.5%0.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	0.0%no change	-11.8%$262 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Sandbox, 12 to 36 months old: 1,229 launches.

Launches counted: 1,229210 hits
Earned $100k+: 17.1 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,212top tenth $299,853+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 1,229 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1,187198 hits
Earned $100k+: 16.7 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,212
Chance against standard: -2.4%0.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (22.4% of the money): 1,228 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1,228209 hits
Earned $100k+: 17.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $2,212
Chance against standard: -0.4%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 380 of 1,229.

Launches counted: 38062 hits
Earned $100k+: 16.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $1,950
Chance against standard: -4.5%0.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -11.8%$262 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Sandbox, 12 to 36 months old: 1,229 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 42 of 1,229 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Manor Lords (22.4% of the money): 1,228 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 380 of 1,229.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Arcade + Sandbox moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.