Niche

Arena Shooter + Casual

Games tagged both Arena Shooter and Casual: 122 indie paid launches, 0 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price Under $5

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

Under $5

Showing Arena Shooter + Casual priced under $5.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?Under $5

Arena Shooter + Casual is too small to compare with Arena Shooter and is too small to compare with Casual: 0 of its 85 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 1 of 305 launches for Arena Shooter and 0.5 in 100 for Casual.

Small sample: 85 launches, 0 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag oneArena Shooter

1 of 305launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds1 of 305 launches

Typical earnings$115

Launches305 / 1 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairArena Shooter + Casual

0 of 85launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds0 of 85 launches

Typical earnings$71

Launches85 / 0 hits

Expected0.5 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twomood tagCasual

0.5in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds1 in 217

Typical earnings$117

Launches6,289 / 29 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches under $5: 0.5 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 219), typical $169, from 13,780 launches.each block is 0.5 in 100 all indie at under $5Casual is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices122 in pair Under $585 in pair $5 to $1031 in pair$10 to $206: too few$20 to $40no launches

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 85 games tagged both Arena Shooter and Casual priced under $5. 0 of 85 of them earned $100k+, against 1 of 220 for Arena Shooter-only games and 0.5 in 100 for Casual-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Arena Shooter alone and is too small to compare with Casual alone.

Both: 85 games priced under $5; 0 of 85 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $71.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 85 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Antipaintleads this pair17.7%

PairAntipaint17.7%

Arena ShooterDeep Rock Galactic: Survivor45.6%

CasualHouse Flipper 23.8%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Arena Shooter + Casual

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Antipaint earned 17.7% of the estimated first-year money of the 122 Arena Shooter + Casual launches.
Arena Shooter is led by Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor, with 45.6% of its money.
Casual is led by House Flipper 2, with 3.8% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Arena Shooter + Casual holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Arena Shooter + Casual through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view122 of 122 launches	Without the breakout121 of 122 launches	Last 18 months26 of 122 launches
Launches counted	1220 hits	1220 hits	1210 hits	260 hits
Earned $100k+	0 of 122too few for a rate	0 of 122too few for a rate	0 of 121too few for a rate	0 of 26too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$127top tenth $2,869+	$127	$125	$306
Chance against standard	the base	0.0%no change; too few to tell	0.0%no change	0.0%no change; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	-1.6%$2 less	+140.9%$179 more; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Arena Shooter and Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 122 launches.

Launches counted: 1220 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 122too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $127top tenth $2,869+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 0 of 122 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1220 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 122too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $127
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change; too few to tell
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Antipaint (17.7% of the money): 121 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1210 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 121too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $125
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change
Typical against standard: -1.6%$2 less

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 26 of 122.

Launches counted: 260 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 26too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $306
Chance against standard: 0.0%no change; too few to tell
Typical against standard: +140.9%$179 more; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Arena Shooter and Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 122 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 0 of 122 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Antipaint (17.7% of the money): 121 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 26 of 122.

Arena Shooter is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.

Arena Shooter through every lens, all prices
Arena Shooter	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view515 of 518 launches	Without the breakout517 of 518 launches	Last 18 months130 of 518 launches
Launches counted	51813 hits	51512 hits	51712 hits	1301 hits
Earned $100k+	2.5 in 1001 in 40	2.3 in 1001 in 43	2.3 in 1001 in 43	1 of 130too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$269top tenth $11,990+	$269	$268	$306
Chance against standard	the base	-7.2%0.2 fewer in 100	-7.5%0.2 fewer in 100	-69.3%1.7 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	-0.4%$1 less	+13.8%$37 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Moves the answer	Holds	Holds

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Arena Shooter, 12 to 36 months old: 518 launches.

Launches counted: 51813 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.5 in 1001 in 40
Typical first-year earnings: $269top tenth $11,990+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewMoves the answer

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 518 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 51512 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.3 in 1001 in 43
Typical first-year earnings: $269
Chance against standard: -7.2%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor (45.6% of the money): 517 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 51712 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.3 in 1001 in 43
Typical first-year earnings: $268
Chance against standard: -7.5%0.2 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -0.4%$1 less

Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 130 of 518.

Launches counted: 1301 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 130too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $306
Chance against standard: -69.3%1.7 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: +13.8%$37 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Arena Shooter, 12 to 36 months old: 518 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 518 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor (45.6% of the money): 517 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 130 of 518.

Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual through every lens, all prices
Casual	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view9,211 of 9,751 launches	Without the breakout9,750 of 9,751 launches	Last 18 months2,939 of 9,751 launches
Launches counted	9,751259 hits	9,211240 hits	9,750258 hits	2,939107 hits
Earned $100k+	2.7 in 1001 in 38	2.6 in 1001 in 38	2.6 in 1001 in 38	3.6 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings	$253top tenth $8,786+	$257	$253	$230
Chance against standard	the base	-1.9%0.1 fewer in 100	-0.4%no change	+37.1%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+1.6%$4 more	0.0%no change	-9.1%$23 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,751 launches.

Launches counted: 9,751259 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.7 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings: $253top tenth $8,786+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 540 of 9,751 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 9,211240 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.6 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings: $257
Chance against standard: -1.9%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +1.6%$4 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.8% of the money): 9,750 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 9,750258 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.6 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings: $253
Chance against standard: -0.4%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,939 of 9,751.

Launches counted: 2,939107 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.6 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings: $230
Chance against standard: +37.1%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standard: -9.1%$23 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,751 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 540 of 9,751 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.8% of the money): 9,750 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,939 of 9,751.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Arena Shooter + Casual moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.