Niche

Base Building + Casual

Games tagged both Base Building and Casual: 89 indie paid launches, 11 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,280 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 3 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Price $10 to $20

All prices1 in 17 hit $100k+Under $51 in 219 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 30 hit $100k+$10 to $2018 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4040 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,280 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

$10 to $20

Showing Base Building + Casual priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair trails Base Building and beats Casual; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Base Building and is too small to compare with Casual.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Base Building + Casual is too small to compare with Base Building and is too small to compare with Casual: 6 of its 17 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 29.6 in 100 for Base Building and 11.4 in 100 for Casual.

Small sample: 17 launches, 6 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag oneBase Building

29.6in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds29.6 in 100

Typical earnings$26,339

Launches213 / 63 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairBase Building + Casual

6 of 17launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds6 of 17 launches

Typical earnings$33,272

Launches17 / 6 hits

Expected17.6 in 100

TIETied

Tag twomood tagCasual

11.4in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds11.4 in 100

Typical earnings$2,971

Launches1,009 / 115 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches $10 to $20: 17.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $8,234, from 4,301 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Casual is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 40.0 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices89 in pair Under $536 in pair $5 to $1036 in pair $10 to $2017 in pair$20 to $40no launches

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 17 games tagged both Base Building and Casual priced $10 to $20. 6 of 17 of them earned $100k+, against 29.1 in 100 for Base Building-only games and 11.0 in 100 for Casual-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Base Building alone and is too small to compare with Casual alone.

Both: 17 games priced $10 to $20; 6 of 17 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $33,272.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 17 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Star Birdsleads this pair32.1%

PairStar Birds32.1%

Base BuildingSchedule I30.5%

CasualHouse Flipper 23.8%

CheckOne game over half?no

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 2 of 3, 1 too few to tell. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Base Building + Casual

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Star Birds earned 32.1% of the estimated first-year money of the 89 Base Building + Casual launches.
Base Building is led by Schedule I, with 30.5% of its money.
Casual is led by House Flipper 2, with 3.8% of its money.
No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Base Building + Casual holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Base Building + Casual through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view86 of 89 launches	Without the breakout88 of 89 launches	Last 18 months19 of 89 launches
Launches counted	8911 hits	8611 hits	8810 hits	193 hits
Earned $100k+	12.4 in 100	12.8 in 100	11.4 in 100	3 of 19too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$707top tenth $152,601+	$709	$707	$459
Chance against standard	the base	+3.5%0.4 more in 100	-8.1%1.0 fewer in 100	+27.8%3.4 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	+0.3%$2 more; too few to tell	0.0%no change	-35.1%$248 less; too few to tell
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Base Building and Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 89 launches.

Launches counted: 8911 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $707top tenth $152,601+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 89 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 8611 hits
Earned $100k+: 12.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $709
Chance against standard: +3.5%0.4 more in 100
Typical against standard: +0.3%$2 more; too few to tell

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Star Birds (32.1% of the money): 88 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 8810 hits
Earned $100k+: 11.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $707
Chance against standard: -8.1%1.0 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 19 of 89.

Launches counted: 193 hits
Earned $100k+: 3 of 19too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: $459
Chance against standard: +27.8%3.4 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: -35.1%$248 less; too few to tell

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Base Building and Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 89 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 89 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Star Birds (32.1% of the money): 88 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 19 of 89.

Base Building is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Base Building through every lens, all prices
Base Building	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view554 of 583 launches	Without the breakout582 of 583 launches	Last 18 months157 of 583 launches
Launches counted	583125 hits	554119 hits	582124 hits	15735 hits
Earned $100k+	21.4 in 100	21.5 in 100	21.3 in 100	22.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings	$3,034top tenth $454,995+	$3,119	$3,034	$5,356
Chance against standard	the base	+0.2%no change	-0.6%0.1 fewer in 100	+4.0%0.9 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+2.8%$85 more	0.0%no change	+76.5%$2,322 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Base Building, 12 to 36 months old: 583 launches.

Launches counted: 583125 hits
Earned $100k+: 21.4 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $3,034top tenth $454,995+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 29 of 583 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 554119 hits
Earned $100k+: 21.5 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $3,119
Chance against standard: +0.2%no change
Typical against standard: +2.8%$85 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (30.5% of the money): 582 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 582124 hits
Earned $100k+: 21.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $3,034
Chance against standard: -0.6%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 157 of 583.

Launches counted: 15735 hits
Earned $100k+: 22.3 in 100
Typical first-year earnings: $5,356
Chance against standard: +4.0%0.9 more in 100
Typical against standard: +76.5%$2,322 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Base Building, 12 to 36 months old: 583 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 29 of 583 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Schedule I (30.5% of the money): 582 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 157 of 583.

Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual through every lens, all prices
Casual	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view9,211 of 9,751 launches	Without the breakout9,750 of 9,751 launches	Last 18 months2,939 of 9,751 launches
Launches counted	9,751259 hits	9,211240 hits	9,750258 hits	2,939107 hits
Earned $100k+	2.7 in 1001 in 38	2.6 in 1001 in 38	2.6 in 1001 in 38	3.6 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings	$253top tenth $8,786+	$257	$253	$230
Chance against standard	the base	-1.9%0.1 fewer in 100	-0.4%no change	+37.1%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+1.6%$4 more	0.0%no change	-9.1%$23 less
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,751 launches.

Launches counted: 9,751259 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.7 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings: $253top tenth $8,786+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 540 of 9,751 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 9,211240 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.6 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings: $257
Chance against standard: -1.9%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: +1.6%$4 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.8% of the money): 9,750 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 9,750258 hits
Earned $100k+: 2.6 in 1001 in 38
Typical first-year earnings: $253
Chance against standard: -0.4%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,939 of 9,751.

Launches counted: 2,939107 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.6 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings: $230
Chance against standard: +37.1%1.0 more in 100
Typical against standard: -9.1%$23 less

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,751 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 540 of 9,751 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.8% of the money): 9,750 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,939 of 9,751.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Base Building + Casual moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

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