Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Dark: a typical launch earns $405 in its first year

That is the median of 108 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 6 of 212 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 5.6 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 14% on the year before: 154 against 135.

Price: $405
Price vs a year earlier: −30.8%
Releases, 12 months: 154
Upcoming games: 271
Games on the store: 905

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Dark on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.04%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.02% to 0.05%	11 ranked of 271 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#2,903 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	1.04xhits against expected	0.71x to 1.67x	212 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#2,526 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 20 or more releases in each 12-month period.
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 1,000 reviews in each window.

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 6
Expected: 5.6

Launches: 212
Hit rate: 2.8%0.5% to 5.9%
Expected rate: 2.6%
Against expected: 1.04x0.71x to 1.67x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

212 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $422
Top tenth: $12,494

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 154
Prior 12 months: 135

Change: +14%

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
DarkNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Dark

pairs with Dark

RPG + Dark$3,32642 launches priced, 68 releases in 12 months
Dark + Female Protagonist$3,04831 launches priced, 31 releases in 12 months
Dark + Supernatural$2,48942 launches priced, 63 releases in 12 months
Story Rich + Dark$2,427120 launches priced, 161 releases in 12 months
Dark + Choices Matter$2,30338 launches priced, 62 releases in 12 months
Visual Novel + Dark$1,85867 launches priced, 112 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Dark

Verdicts

in development

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