Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Difficult: a typical launch earns $474 in its first year

That is the median of 96 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 2 of 191 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 6.0 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 13% on the year before: 119 against 105.

Price: $474
Price vs a year earlier: −21.8%
Releases, 12 months: 119
Upcoming games: 215
Games on the store: 1,395

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Difficult on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.08%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.04% to 0.11%	10 ranked of 215 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#2,048 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.55xhits against expected	0.41x to 0.99x	191 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#5,432 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 20 or more releases in each 12-month period.
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	Below this board's minimum sample, so not ranked. Needs 15 or more tracked games and 1,000 reviews in each window.

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 2
Expected: 6.0

Launches: 191
Hit rate: 1.0%0.0% to 5.0%
Expected rate: 3.2%
Against expected: 0.55x0.41x to 0.99x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

191 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $40
Median: $505
Top tenth: $7,478

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 119
Prior 12 months: 105

Change: +13%

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
DifficultNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Difficult

pairs with Difficult

RPG + Difficult$8,09240 launches priced, 39 releases in 12 months
Roguelike + Difficult$3,64173 launches priced, 93 releases in 12 months
Roguelite + Difficult$3,03570 launches priced, 97 releases in 12 months
Difficult + Action Roguelike$2,42672 launches priced, 73 releases in 12 months
Difficult + Souls-like$2,12341 launches priced, 39 releases in 12 months
Difficult + Bullet Hell$2,12150 launches priced, 58 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Difficult

Verdicts

in development

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