Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Exploration: a typical launch earns $404 in its first year

That is the median of 581 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 39 of 1,173 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 56.6 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 34% on the year before: 985 against 736.

Price: $404
Price vs a year earlier: −33.4%
Releases, 12 months: 985
Upcoming games: 2,056
Games on the store: 5,984

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Exploration on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.95%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.73% to 1.13%	153 ranked of 2,056 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#235 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.70xhits against expected	0.56x to 0.90x	1,173 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#4,707 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. One game dominates the figure	+1%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−8% to +12%	171 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,393 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0%review growth against same-age games	−6% to +6%	171 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,995 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 39
Expected: 56.6

Launches: 1,173
Hit rate: 3.3%2.4% to 4.9%
Expected rate: 4.8%
Against expected: 0.70x0.56x to 0.90x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

1,173 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $403
Top tenth: $12,792

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 985
Prior 12 months: 736

Change: +34%
Against Steam: −2%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
ExplorationNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Exploration

pairs with Exploration

Exploration + Cozy$24,01549 launches priced, 99 releases in 12 months
Exploration + Open World Survival Craft$13,97334 launches priced, 26 releases in 12 months
Driving + Exploration$10,40830 launches priced, 42 releases in 12 months
Exploration + Multiplayer$8,00174 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Exploration + Online Co-Op$7,08069 launches priced, 134 releases in 12 months
Co-op + Exploration$5,14762 launches priced, 101 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Exploration

Verdicts

in development

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