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Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

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on 11 Nov 2026

Niches / Casual + Exploration

Niche

Casual + Exploration

Games tagged both Casual and Exploration: 1,063 indie paid launches, 43 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

  • A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
  • Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
  • From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Showing Casual + Exploration priced $10 to $20.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Casual + Exploration is about level with Casual and trails Exploration: 16.3 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 13.8 in 100 for Casual and 20.6 in 100 for Exploration.

That is about 0.8 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.

TIETied
Tag onemood tagCasual
13.8in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds13.8 in 100
Typical earnings$4,254
Launches1,006 / 139 hits
A tie, apart by2.5 in 100
TIETied
This pairCasual + Exploration
16.3in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds16.3 in 100
Typical earnings$6,240
Launches135 / 22 hits
Expected20.5 in 100
1STWinner
Tag twomood tagExploration
20.6in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds20.6 in 100
Typical earnings$12,769
Launches880 / 181 hits
Pair trails by4.3 in 100
All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Casual is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page
All prices1,063 in pairUnder $5620 in pair$5 to $10262 in pair$10 to $20135 in pair$20 to $4046 in pair
What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 135 games tagged both Casual and Exploration priced $10 to $20. 16.3 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 13.4 in 100 for Casual-only games and 21.3 in 100 for Exploration-only games, so the mix is about level with Casual alone and trails Exploration alone.

Both: 135 games priced $10 to $20; 16.3 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $6,240.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 135 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Hello Kitty Island Adventureleads this pair17.0%
PairHello Kitty Island Adventure17.0%
CasualHouse Flipper 23.9%
ExplorationHollow Knight: Silksong23.3%
CheckOne game over half?no
NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview
ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Casual + Exploration

What this card holds

  • Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
  • One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
  • Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready
Same price banddata ready
Launched within a year of each otherplanned
Earned $100k+planned
The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

  • Hello Kitty Island Adventure earned 17.0% of the estimated first-year money of the 1,063 Casual + Exploration launches.
  • Casual is led by House Flipper 2, with 3.9% of its money.
  • Exploration is led by Hollow Knight: Silksong, with 23.3% of its money.
  • No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Casual + Exploration holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Casual + Exploration through every lens, all prices
This pairBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view1,007 of 1,063 launchesWithout the breakout1,062 of 1,063 launchesLast 18 months303 of 1,063 launches
Launches counted1,06343 hits1,00740 hits1,06242 hits30312 hits
Earned $100k+4.0 in 1001 in 254.0 in 1001 in 254.0 in 1001 in 254.0 in 1001 in 25
Typical first-year earnings$389top tenth $12,829+$402$389$307
Chance against standardthe base-1.8%0.1 fewer in 100-2.2%0.1 fewer in 100-2.1%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe base+3.3%$13 more0.0%no change-21.1%$82 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 1,063 launches.

Launches counted
1,06343 hits
Earned $100k+
4.0 in 1001 in 25
Typical first-year earnings
$389top tenth $12,829+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 56 of 1,063 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
1,00740 hits
Earned $100k+
4.0 in 1001 in 25
Typical first-year earnings
$402
Chance against standard
-1.8%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
+3.3%$13 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (17.0% of the money): 1,062 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
1,06242 hits
Earned $100k+
4.0 in 1001 in 25
Typical first-year earnings
$389
Chance against standard
-2.2%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 303 of 1,063.

Launches counted
30312 hits
Earned $100k+
4.0 in 1001 in 25
Typical first-year earnings
$307
Chance against standard
-2.1%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-21.1%$82 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 1,063 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 56 of 1,063 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (17.0% of the money): 1,062 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 303 of 1,063.

Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual through every lens, all prices
CasualBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view9,378 of 9,921 launchesWithout the breakout9,920 of 9,921 launchesLast 18 months2,915 of 9,921 launches
Launches counted9,921305 hits9,378287 hits9,920304 hits2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+3.1 in 1001 in 333.1 in 1001 in 333.1 in 1001 in 334.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings$252top tenth $10,057+$268$252$272
Chance against standardthe base-0.5%no change-0.3%no change+41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standardthe base+6.3%$16 more0.0%no change+7.9%$20 more
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsMoves the answer
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.

Launches counted
9,921305 hits
Earned $100k+
3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings
$252top tenth $10,057+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
9,378287 hits
Earned $100k+
3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings
$268
Chance against standard
-0.5%no change
Typical against standard
+6.3%$16 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
9,920304 hits
Earned $100k+
3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings
$252
Chance against standard
-0.3%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Launches counted
2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+
4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings
$272
Chance against standard
+41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard
+7.9%$20 more
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Exploration holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Exploration through every lens, all prices
ExplorationBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view4,432 of 4,635 launchesWithout the breakout4,634 of 4,635 launchesLast 18 months1,277 of 4,635 launches
Launches counted4,635375 hits4,432357 hits4,634374 hits1,27799 hits
Earned $100k+8.1 in 1001 in 128.1 in 1001 in 128.1 in 1001 in 127.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings$876top tenth $64,081+$894$876$858
Chance against standardthe base-0.4%no change-0.2%no change-4.2%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe base+2.1%$18 more0.0%no change-2.1%$18 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 4,635 launches.

Launches counted
4,635375 hits
Earned $100k+
8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$876top tenth $64,081+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 203 of 4,635 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
4,432357 hits
Earned $100k+
8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$894
Chance against standard
-0.4%no change
Typical against standard
+2.1%$18 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (23.3% of the money): 4,634 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
4,634374 hits
Earned $100k+
8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings
$876
Chance against standard
-0.2%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,277 of 4,635.

Launches counted
1,27799 hits
Earned $100k+
7.8 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings
$858
Chance against standard
-4.2%0.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-2.1%$18 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Exploration, 12 to 36 months old: 4,635 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 203 of 4,635 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Hollow Knight: Silksong (23.3% of the money): 4,634 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 1,277 of 4,635.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Casual + Exploration moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.