Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Female Protagonist: a typical launch earns $809 in its first year

That is the median of 154 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 16 of 339 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 21.9 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 43% on the year before: 264 against 185.

China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese

Price: $809
Price vs a year earlier: +67.0%
Releases, 12 months: 264
Upcoming games: 438
Games on the store: 2,074

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Female Protagonist on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.14%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.10% to 0.21%	27 ranked of 438 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#1,349 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. China market: over 35% of reviews are Chinese Listed after unflagged rows on this board	0.76xhits against expected	0.55x to 1.07x	339 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#6,226 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−9%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−24% to +9%	74 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,699 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−6%review growth against same-age games	−12% to 0%	74 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,078 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 16
Expected: 21.9

Launches: 339
Hit rate: 4.4%2.4% to 9.2%
Expected rate: 6.5%
Against expected: 0.76x0.55x to 1.07x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

338 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $524
Top tenth: $30,720

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 264
Prior 12 months: 185

Change: +43%
Against Steam: +3%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
Female ProtagonistNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Female Protagonist

pairs with Female Protagonist

Hack and Slash + Female Protagonist$10,32730 launches priced, 52 releases in 12 months
JRPG + Female Protagonist$6,70840 launches priced, 47 releases in 12 months
Female Protagonist + Action Roguelike$6,55637 launches priced, 55 releases in 12 months
Mystery + Female Protagonist$5,30753 launches priced, 76 releases in 12 months
Female Protagonist + LGBTQ+$4,85853 launches priced, 86 releases in 12 months
Bullet Hell + Female Protagonist$4,45135 launches priced, 39 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Female Protagonist

Verdicts

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