Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + First-Person: a typical launch earns $505 in its first year

That is the median of 467 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 37 of 948 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 38.5 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 33% on the year before: 758 against 569.

Price: $505
Price vs a year earlier: −16.8%
Releases, 12 months: 758
Upcoming games: 1,571
Games on the store: 4,589

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + First-Person on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.85%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.64% to 1.08%	109 ranked of 1,571 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#279 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.96xhits against expected	0.76x to 1.23x	948 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#3,011 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−2%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−12% to +11%	130 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,509 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−5%review growth against same-age games	−9% to +1%	130 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,021 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 37
Expected: 38.5

Launches: 948
Hit rate: 3.9%2.7% to 6.3%
Expected rate: 4.1%
Against expected: 0.96x0.76x to 1.23x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

948 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $546
Top tenth: $24,491

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 758
Prior 12 months: 569

Change: +33%
Against Steam: −3%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
First-PersonNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with First-Person

pairs with First-Person

Co-op + First-Person$11,81190 launches priced, 133 releases in 12 months
First-Person + Economy$9,96156 launches priced, 91 releases in 12 months
Building + First-Person$7,38241 launches priced, 60 releases in 12 months
First-Person + Management$7,08093 launches priced, 157 releases in 12 months
Crafting + First-Person$6,99934 launches priced, 64 releases in 12 months
First-Person + Online Co-Op$5,747102 launches priced, 173 releases in 12 months

Every pair with First-Person

Verdicts

in development

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