Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Casual + Linear
Games tagged both Casual and Linear: 406 indie paid launches, 2 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Casual + Linear priced $10 to $20.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Casual + Linear is too small to compare with Casual and is too small to compare with Linear: 0 of its 27 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 13.8 in 100 for Casual and 4 of 88 launches for Linear.
Small sample: 27 launches, 0 hits.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 27 games tagged both Casual and Linear priced $10 to $20. 0 of 27 of them earned $100k+, against 14.2 in 100 for Casual-only games and 4 of 61 for Linear-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Casual alone and is too small to compare with Linear alone.
Both: 27 games priced $10 to $20; 0 of 27 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 19 of 27 launches · $10k+ 5 of 27 launches · $100k+ 0 of 27 launches.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 27 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Casual + Linear holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view397 of 406 launches | Without the breakout405 of 406 launches | Last 18 months110 of 406 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 4062 hits | 3972 hits | 4051 hits | 1100 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 2 of 406too few for a rate | 2 of 397too few for a rate | 1 of 405too few for a rate | 0 of 110too few for a rate |
| Typical first-year earnings | $236top tenth $4,252+ | $236 | $236 | $217 |
| Chance against standard | the base | +2.3%no change; too few to tell | -49.9%0.2 fewer in 100 | -100.0%0.5 fewer in 100; too few to tell |
| Typical against standard | the base | 0.0%no change | 0.0%no change | -8.1%$19 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Linear, 12 to 36 months old: 406 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 9 of 406 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Spilled! (37.7% of the money): 405 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 110 of 406.
Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.
| Casual | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view9,378 of 9,921 launches | Without the breakout9,920 of 9,921 launches | Last 18 months2,915 of 9,921 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 9,921305 hits | 9,378287 hits | 9,920304 hits | 2,915127 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 3.1 in 1001 in 33 | 3.1 in 1001 in 33 | 3.1 in 1001 in 33 | 4.4 in 1001 in 23 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $252top tenth $10,057+ | $268 | $252 | $272 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -0.5%no change | -0.3%no change | +41.7%1.3 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +6.3%$16 more | 0.0%no change | +7.9%$20 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.
Linear is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.
| Linear | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view1,042 of 1,070 launches | Without the breakout1,069 of 1,070 launches | Last 18 months313 of 1,070 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 1,07012 hits | 1,04210 hits | 1,06911 hits | 3135 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 1.1 in 1001 in 89 | 1.0 in 1001 in 104 | 1.0 in 1001 in 97 | 1.6 in 1001 in 63 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $321top tenth $6,358+ | $325 | $313 | $273 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -14.4%0.2 fewer in 100 | -8.2%0.1 fewer in 100 | +42.4%0.5 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | +1.2%$4 more | -2.5%$8 less | -15.0%$48 less |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Moves the answer | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged Linear, 12 to 36 months old: 1,070 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 28 of 1,070 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Spilled! (9.8% of the money): 1,069 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 313 of 1,070.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Casual + Linear moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.