Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026
Casual + Logic: a typical launch earns $202 in its first year
That is the median of 287 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 9 of 592 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 18.8 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 48% on the year before: 472 against 320.
- Price
- $202 median of 287 launches
- Price vs a year earlier
- −16.8% four quarters on the four before
- Releases, 12 months
- 472 320 the year before
- Upcoming games
- 521 coming soon on Steam
- Games on the store
- 2,617 carrying both tags
Boards
as of 30 Sep 2026Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.
| Board | Value | Interval | Sample | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it. | 0.11%share of upcoming wishlist heat | 0.05% to 0.16% | 15 ranked of 521 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026 | #1,665 of 7,193pairs on this board |
| Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. | 0.55xhits against expected | 0.38x to 0.84x | 592 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old) | #5,441 of 6,324pairs on this board |
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.
| −4%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam | −17% to +10% | 50 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months | #1,577 of 2,361pairs on this board |
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.
| +4%review growth against same-age games | −6% to +13% | 50 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025 | #1,795 of 2,461pairs on this board |
Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.
Launch success
launches 6 to 30 months oldMatured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.
- Launches
- 592
- Hit rate
- 1.5%0.8% to 4.3%
- Expected rate
- 3.2%
- Against expected
- 0.55x0.38x to 0.84x
Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.
Revenue spread
592 launchesEstimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.
- Bottom tenth
- $0
- Median
- $202
- Top tenth
- $4,046
Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.
Supply
raw release countsGames released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.
- Change
- +48%
- Against Steam
- +8%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases
Parent tags
Comparable games
8 indie titlesThe biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.
- Is This Seat Taken? (opens the Steam store)2025 · 9,190 reviews, 97% positiveest. $1.8M
- The Artisan of Glimmith (opens the Steam store)2026 · 2,584 reviews, 97% positiveest. $615k
- Squeakross: Home Squeak Home (opens the Steam store)2025 · 2,050 reviews, 98% positiveest. $584k
- Brickadia (opens the Steam store)2025 · 1,270 reviews, 81% positiveest. $514k
- Strange Jigsaws (opens the Steam store)2025 · 4,691 reviews, 99% positiveest. $462k
- Proverbs (opens the Steam store)2024 · 1,812 reviews, 96% positiveest. $330k
- LOK Digital (opens the Steam store)2024 · 510 reviews, 99% positiveest. $155k
- Maxwell's puzzling demon (opens the Steam store)2024 · 416 reviews, 98% positiveest. $126k
More with Casual
pairs with Casual- Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
- Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
- Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
- Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
- Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
- Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months
More with Logic
pairs with Logic- Difficult + Logic$1,87747 launches priced, 36 releases in 12 months
- Cute + Logic$1,13385 launches priced, 101 releases in 12 months
- Mystery + Logic$72833 launches priced, 71 releases in 12 months
- Simulation + Logic$71766 launches priced, 88 releases in 12 months
- Exploration + Logic$60752 launches priced, 88 releases in 12 months
- Adventure + Logic$60681 launches priced, 116 releases in 12 months
Verdicts
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