Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Mystery: a typical launch earns $454 in its first year

That is the median of 144 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 10 of 277 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 19.0 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 24% on the year before: 204 against 164.

Price: $454
Price vs a year earlier: −38.9%
Releases, 12 months: 204
Upcoming games: 302
Games on the store: 1,350

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Mystery on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.17%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.09% to 0.24%	25 ranked of 302 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#1,196 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	0.59xhits against expected	0.41x to 0.88x	277 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#5,291 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	+7%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−11% to +27%	44 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,208 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	−4%review growth against same-age games	−12% to +3%	44 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#996 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 10
Expected: 19.0

Launches: 277
Hit rate: 3.6%1.7% to 7.2%
Expected rate: 6.9%
Against expected: 0.59x0.41x to 0.88x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

277 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $12
Median: $505
Top tenth: $12,474

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 204
Prior 12 months: 164

Change: +24%
Against Steam: −11%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
MysteryNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Mystery

pairs with Mystery

Mystery + Choices Matter$6,00949 launches priced, 114 releases in 12 months
Anime + Mystery$5,55743 launches priced, 65 releases in 12 months
Mystery + Female Protagonist$5,30753 launches priced, 76 releases in 12 months
Detective + Mystery$5,207106 launches priced, 184 releases in 12 months
Cinematic + Mystery$4,60234 launches priced, 41 releases in 12 months
Surreal + Mystery$4,52440 launches priced, 57 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Mystery

Verdicts

in development

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