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Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

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on 11 Nov 2026

Niches / Casual + Open World

Niche

Casual + Open World

Games tagged both Casual and Open World: 142 indie paid launches, 21 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

  • A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
  • Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
  • From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Showing Casual + Open World priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats Casual and trails Open World; priced $10 to $20 it beats Casual and is about level with Open World.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Casual + Open World beats Casual and is about level with Open World: 31.6 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 13.8 in 100 for Casual and 29.3 in 100 for Open World.

That is about 1.5 times the 20.5 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.

3RDThird
Tag onemood tagCasual
13.8in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds13.8 in 100
Typical earnings$4,254
Launches1,006 / 139 hits
Pair leads by17.8 in 100
TIEA tie
This pairCasual + Open World
31.6in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds31.6 in 100
$1k+79 in 100
$10k+58 in 100
Launches38 / 12 hits
Expected20.5 in 100
TIEA tie
Tag twoOpen World
29.3in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds29.3 in 100
Typical earnings$25,255
Launches276 / 81 hits
A tie, apart by2.2 in 100
All indie launches $10 to $20: 20.5 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $11,233, from 4,337 launches.each block is 2 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Casual is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page
All prices142 in pairUnder $558 in pair$5 to $1035 in pair$10 to $2038 in pair$20 to $4011 in pair
What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 38 games tagged both Casual and Open World priced $10 to $20. 31.6 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 13.1 in 100 for Casual-only games and 29.0 in 100 for Open World-only games, so the mix beats Casual alone and is about level with Open World alone.

Both: 38 games priced $10 to $20; 31.6 in 100 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 79 in 100 · $10k+ 58 in 100 · $100k+ 32 in 100.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 38 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Hello Kitty Island Adventureleads this pair22.6%
PairHello Kitty Island Adventure22.6%
CasualHouse Flipper 23.9%
Open WorldPalworld29.6%
CheckOne game over half?no
NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview
ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Casual + Open World

What this card holds

  • Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
  • One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
  • Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready
Same price banddata ready
Launched within a year of each otherplanned
Earned $100k+planned
The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

  • Hello Kitty Island Adventure earned 22.6% of the estimated first-year money of the 142 Casual + Open World launches.
  • Casual is led by House Flipper 2, with 3.9% of its money.
  • Open World is led by Palworld, with 29.6% of its money.
  • No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Casual + Open World holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Casual + Open World through every lens, all prices
This pairBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view132 of 142 launchesWithout the breakout141 of 142 launchesLast 18 months41 of 142 launches
Launches counted14221 hits13220 hits14120 hits415 hits
Earned $100k+14.8 in 10015.2 in 10014.2 in 10012.2 in 100
Typical first-year earnings$1,119top tenth $459,080+$1,181$1,073under 100 launches
Chance against standardthe base+2.5%0.4 more in 100-4.1%0.6 fewer in 100-17.5%2.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe base+5.5%$62 more-4.1%$46 lessunder 100 launches
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Open World, 12 to 36 months old: 142 launches.

Launches counted
14221 hits
Earned $100k+
14.8 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$1,119top tenth $459,080+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 10 of 142 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
13220 hits
Earned $100k+
15.2 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$1,181
Chance against standard
+2.5%0.4 more in 100
Typical against standard
+5.5%$62 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (22.6% of the money): 141 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
14120 hits
Earned $100k+
14.2 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$1,073
Chance against standard
-4.1%0.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-4.1%$46 less
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 41 of 142.

Launches counted
415 hits
Earned $100k+
12.2 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
under 100 launches
Chance against standard
-17.5%2.6 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
under 100 launches
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Open World, 12 to 36 months old: 142 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 10 of 142 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (22.6% of the money): 141 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 41 of 142.

Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual through every lens, all prices
CasualBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view9,378 of 9,921 launchesWithout the breakout9,920 of 9,921 launchesLast 18 months2,915 of 9,921 launches
Launches counted9,921305 hits9,378287 hits9,920304 hits2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+3.1 in 1001 in 333.1 in 1001 in 333.1 in 1001 in 334.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings$252top tenth $10,057+$268$252$272
Chance against standardthe base-0.5%no change-0.3%no change+41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standardthe base+6.3%$16 more0.0%no change+7.9%$20 more
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsMoves the answer
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.

Launches counted
9,921305 hits
Earned $100k+
3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings
$252top tenth $10,057+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
9,378287 hits
Earned $100k+
3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings
$268
Chance against standard
-0.5%no change
Typical against standard
+6.3%$16 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
9,920304 hits
Earned $100k+
3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings
$252
Chance against standard
-0.3%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Launches counted
2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+
4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings
$272
Chance against standard
+41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard
+7.9%$20 more
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Open World holds in West-facing view, Without the breakout and Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Open World through every lens, all prices
Open WorldBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view820 of 858 launchesWithout the breakout857 of 858 launchesLast 18 months210 of 858 launches
Launches counted858163 hits820156 hits857162 hits21037 hits
Earned $100k+19.0 in 10019.0 in 10018.9 in 10017.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings$2,181top tenth $483,712+$2,280$2,150$2,601
Chance against standardthe base+0.1%no change-0.5%0.1 fewer in 100-7.3%1.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe base+4.5%$99 more-1.4%$31 less+19.3%$420 more
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Open World, 12 to 36 months old: 858 launches.

Launches counted
858163 hits
Earned $100k+
19.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$2,181top tenth $483,712+
Chance against standard
the base
Typical against standard
the base
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 38 of 858 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
820156 hits
Earned $100k+
19.0 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$2,280
Chance against standard
+0.1%no change
Typical against standard
+4.5%$99 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Palworld (29.6% of the money): 857 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted
857162 hits
Earned $100k+
18.9 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$2,150
Chance against standard
-0.5%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-1.4%$31 less
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 210 of 858.

Launches counted
21037 hits
Earned $100k+
17.6 in 100
Typical first-year earnings
$2,601
Chance against standard
-7.3%1.4 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
+19.3%$420 more
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Open World, 12 to 36 months old: 858 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 38 of 858 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Palworld (29.6% of the money): 857 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 210 of 858.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Casual + Open World moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.