Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + Physics: a typical launch earns $283 in its first year

That is the median of 271 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 21 of 570 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 18.6 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 73% on the year before: 542 against 313.

Price: $283
Price vs a year earlier: +55.8%
Releases, 12 months: 542
Upcoming games: 995
Games on the store: 3,080

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + Physics on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.58%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.31% to 1.01%	49 ranked of 995 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#406 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter.	1.11xhits against expected	0.82x to 1.51x	570 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#2,149 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches.	−13%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−24% to +1%	47 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#1,822 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal.	+11%review growth against same-age games	0% to +21%	47 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#271 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 21
Expected: 18.6

Launches: 570
Hit rate: 3.7%2.5% to 4.9%
Expected rate: 3.3%
Against expected: 1.11x0.82x to 1.51x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

570 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $242
Top tenth: $10,230

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 542
Prior 12 months: 313

Change: +73%
Against Steam: +27%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
PhysicsNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with Physics

pairs with Physics

Building + Physics$2,16430 launches priced, 52 releases in 12 months
Exploration + Physics$2,06074 launches priced, 123 releases in 12 months
Multiplayer + Physics$1,72852 launches priced, 181 releases in 12 months
Comedy + Physics$1,61742 launches priced, 99 releases in 12 months
Sandbox + Physics$1,24262 launches priced, 145 releases in 12 months
Psychological Horror + Physics$1,11244 launches priced, 49 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Physics

Verdicts

in development

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