Tag pairdata 30 Sep 2026

Casual + PvP: a typical launch earns $243 in its first year

That is the median of 186 indie paid launches, 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q3. 14 of 420 matured launches earned $100k or more, against 16.8 expected for their price and launch quarter. Releases rose 88% on the year before: 490 against 260.

One game dominates the figure

Price: $243
Price vs a year earlier: −16.8%
Releases, 12 months: 490
Upcoming games: 1,043
Games on the store: 2,683

Boards

as of 30 Sep 2026

Where this pair stands on each board of the front page. Every value carries its 90% interval and its sample.

Casual + PvP on each board
Board	Value	Interval	Sample	Standing
Most anticipatedShare of all upcoming wishlist heat on Steam, with the number of upcoming games beside it.	0.23%share of upcoming wishlist heat	0.14% to 0.32%	31 ranked of 1,044 upcoming gameswishlist rank 30 Sep 2026	#959 of 7,193pairs on this board
Launch successLaunches earning $100k or more, against the number expected for their price tier and launch quarter. One game dominates the figure	0.86xhits against expected	0.61x to 1.24x	420 launchesindie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old)	#3,684 of 6,324pairs on this board
Fewer new releasesFewer launches relative to players. Historically this did not predict better launches. One game dominates the figure	−26%player demand against new supply, relative to Steam	−36% to −18%	63 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025; releases 30 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2026 vs prior 12 months	#2,115 of 2,361pairs on this board
Rising demandGaining players faster than same-age games. Descriptive, not a launch signal. One game dominates the figure Listed after unflagged rows on this board	+1%review growth against same-age games	−4% to +10%	63 tracked gamesJun 2026 to Aug 2026 vs Jun 2025 to Aug 2025	#1,909 of 2,461pairs on this board

Pairs are noisier than genres: the demand boards at pair level are indicative only.

Launch success

launches 6 to 30 months old

Matured indie paid launches that earned an estimated $100k or more, against the number expected for games at the same price tier and launch quarter.

Hits: 14
Expected: 16.8

Launches: 420
Hit rate: 3.3%1.0% to 5.6%
Expected rate: 4.0%
Against expected: 0.86x0.61x to 1.24x

Launch window: indie paid launches 31 Mar 2024 to 1 Apr 2026 (6 to 30 months old). Hit odds are shrunk toward the Steam-wide rate by 3 expected hits.

Revenue spread

420 launches

Estimated lifetime gross of the same matured launches. Half earned less than the median; one in ten earned more than the top figure.

Bottom tenth: $0
Median: $302
Top tenth: $11,524

Estimated from Steam review counts. Lifetime to date, so it differs from the first-year price above.

Supply

raw release counts

Games released with both tags, last 12 months against the 12 before.

Last 12 months: 490
Prior 12 months: 260

Change: +88%
Against Steam: +38%after Steam-wide growth, shrunk by 5 releases

Parent tags

CasualNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.
PvPNot a genreA theme, mood, feature or presentation tag: never ranked as a market on its own, only inside pairs.

Comparable games

8 indie titles

The biggest indie games in this pair by estimated lifetime gross. Revenue is shown as a number at 50 or more reviews, as a range at 10 to 49, and not at all below 10.

More with Casual

pairs with Casual

Casual + Job Simulator$8,44230 launches priced, 54 releases in 12 months
Casual + LGBTQ+$4,15442 launches priced, 95 releases in 12 months
Casual + Romance$2,61486 launches priced, 137 releases in 12 months
Casual + Economy$2,204112 launches priced, 302 releases in 12 months
Casual + Online Co-Op$1,970104 launches priced, 272 releases in 12 months
Casual + Capitalism$1,92351 launches priced, 130 releases in 12 months

Every pair with Casual

More with PvP

pairs with PvP

RPG + PvP$1,53738 launches priced, 91 releases in 12 months
PvP + Funny$1,11269 launches priced, 197 releases in 12 months
PvP + Party Game$1,11243 launches priced, 282 releases in 12 months
Sports + PvP$92876 launches priced, 150 releases in 12 months
PvP + Cute$90972 launches priced, 100 releases in 12 months
Simulation + PvP$81051 launches priced, 114 releases in 12 months

Every pair with PvP

Verdicts

in development

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