Genres

Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.

Settings
Text size
Game Market DataBuild what sells
Live games
191,979
on 2 Oct 2026

Niches / Casual + RPG

Niche

Casual + RPG

Games tagged both Casual and RPG: 889 indie paid launches, 32 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

  • A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about".
  • Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
  • From 29,637 indie paid launches 6 to 30 months old, data of 1 Oct 2026. How it is measured.

Showing Casual + RPG priced $10 to $20.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?$10 to $20

Casual + RPG beats Casual and trails RPG: 14.7 in 100 of its launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 12.9 in 100 for Casual and 18.5 in 100 for RPG.

That is about 0.8 times the 18.6 in 100 expected for any launch at this price.

3RDThird
Tag onemood tagCasual
12.9in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds12.9 in 100
Typical earnings$3,885
Launches1,079 / 139 hits
Pair leads by1.8 in 100
2NDRunner-up
This pairCasual + RPG
14.7in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds14.7 in 100
Typical earnings$9,469
Launches95 / 14 hits
Expected18.6 in 100
1STWinner
Tag twoRPG
18.5in 100 earned
$100k+
Odds18.5 in 100
Typical earnings$10,017
Launches881 / 163 hits
Pair trails by3.8 in 100
All indie launches $10 to $20: 18.6 in 100 earned $100k+, typical $9,226, from 4,810 launches.each block is 1 in 100 all indie at $10 to $20Casual is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.5 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 42.4 in 100), so read it within a price band.

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 95 games tagged both Casual and RPG priced $10 to $20. 14.7 in 100 of them earned $100k+, against 12.7 for Casual-only games and 19.0 for RPG-only games, so the mix beats Casual alone and trails RPG alone.

Both: 95 games priced $10 to $20; 14.7 in 100 earned $100k+, typical first-year earnings $9,469.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 95 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Starsand Islandleads this pair20.1%
PairStarsand Island20.1%
CasualHello Kitty Island Adventure3.3%
RPGPath of Exile 216.6%
CheckOne game over half?no
NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkHolds in 3 of 3. Standard: the yardstick. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: holds.

Open free preview
ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Casual + RPG

What this card holds

  • Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
  • One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
  • Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready
Same price banddata ready
Launched within a year of each otherplanned
Earned $100k+planned
The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

  • Starsand Island earned 20.1% of the estimated first-year money of the 889 Casual + RPG launches.
  • Casual is led by Hello Kitty Island Adventure, with 3.3% of its money.
  • RPG is led by Path of Exile 2, with 16.6% of its money.
  • No game holds over half of this pair's money, so the pair is not a one-hit market.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: those with a mostly Chinese audience, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Casual + RPG holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.

Casual + RPG through every lens, all prices
This pairBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view708 of 889 launchesWithout the breakout888 of 889 launchesLast 18 months482 of 889 launches
Launches counted88932 hits70826 hits88831 hits48218 hits
Earned $100k+3.6 in 1001 in 283.7 in 1001 in 273.5 in 1001 in 293.7 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings$324top tenth $20,571+$364$324$303
Chance against standardthe yardstick+2.8%0.1 more in 100-2.8%0.1 fewer in 100+2.8%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick+12.3%$40 more0.0%no change-6.5%$21 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and RPG, 6 to 30 months old: 889 launches.

Launches counted
88932 hits
Earned $100k+
3.6 in 1001 in 28
Typical first-year earnings
$324top tenth $20,571+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 181 of 889 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
70826 hits
Earned $100k+
3.7 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings
$364
Chance against standard
+2.8%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard
+12.3%$40 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Starsand Island (20.1% of the money): 888 launches left.

Launches counted
88831 hits
Earned $100k+
3.5 in 1001 in 29
Typical first-year earnings
$324
Chance against standard
-2.8%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 482 of 889.

Launches counted
48218 hits
Earned $100k+
3.7 in 1001 in 27
Typical first-year earnings
$303
Chance against standard
+2.8%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard
-6.5%$21 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and RPG, 6 to 30 months old: 889 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 181 of 889 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Starsand Island (20.1% of the money): 888 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 482 of 889.

Casual holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.

Casual through every lens, all prices
CasualBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view10,520 of 11,118 launchesWithout the breakout11,117 of 11,118 launchesLast 18 months6,267 of 11,118 launches
Launches counted11,118317 hits10,520295 hits11,117316 hits6,267190 hits
Earned $100k+2.9 in 1001 in 342.8 in 1001 in 362.8 in 1001 in 363.0 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings$303top tenth $10,765+$303$303$282
Chance against standardthe yardstick-3.4%0.1 fewer in 100-3.4%0.1 fewer in 100+3.4%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick0.0%no change0.0%no change-6.9%$21 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 6 to 30 months old: 11,118 launches.

Launches counted
11,118317 hits
Earned $100k+
2.9 in 1001 in 34
Typical first-year earnings
$303top tenth $10,765+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 598 of 11,118 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
10,520295 hits
Earned $100k+
2.8 in 1001 in 36
Typical first-year earnings
$303
Chance against standard
-3.4%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (3.3% of the money): 11,117 launches left.

Launches counted
11,117316 hits
Earned $100k+
2.8 in 1001 in 36
Typical first-year earnings
$303
Chance against standard
-3.4%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 6,267 of 11,118.

Launches counted
6,267190 hits
Earned $100k+
3.0 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings
$282
Chance against standard
+3.4%0.1 more in 100
Typical against standard
-6.9%$21 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 6 to 30 months old: 11,118 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 598 of 11,118 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Hello Kitty Island Adventure (3.3% of the money): 11,117 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 6,267 of 11,118.

RPG holds in 3 of 3: every lens keeps the chance and typical earnings within a quarter of the standard figures.

RPG through every lens, all prices
RPGBaseStandardevery launchWest-facing view3,513 of 4,151 launchesWithout the breakout4,150 of 4,151 launchesLast 18 months2,257 of 4,151 launches
Launches counted4,151319 hits3,513268 hits4,150318 hits2,257162 hits
Earned $100k+7.7 in 1001 in 137.6 in 1001 in 137.7 in 1001 in 137.2 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings$708top tenth $62,744+$728$708$607
Chance against standardthe yardstick-1.3%0.1 fewer in 1000.0%no change-6.5%0.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standardthe yardstick+2.8%$20 more0.0%no change-14.3%$101 less
Does it hold?The base viewHoldsHoldsHolds
BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged RPG, 6 to 30 months old: 4,151 launches.

Launches counted
4,151319 hits
Earned $100k+
7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings
$708top tenth $62,744+
Chance against standard
the yardstick
Typical against standard
the yardstick
West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 638 of 4,151 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted
3,513268 hits
Earned $100k+
7.6 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings
$728
Chance against standard
-1.3%0.1 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
+2.8%$20 more
Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Exile 2 (16.6% of the money): 4,150 launches left.

Launches counted
4,150318 hits
Earned $100k+
7.7 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings
$708
Chance against standard
0.0%no change
Typical against standard
0.0%no change
Last 18 monthsHolds

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,257 of 4,151.

Launches counted
2,257162 hits
Earned $100k+
7.2 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings
$607
Chance against standard
-6.5%0.5 fewer in 100
Typical against standard
-14.3%$101 less
Standard
Every indie paid launch tagged RPG, 6 to 30 months old: 4,151 launches.
West-facing view
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games whose audience is mostly Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 638 of 4,151 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout
Drops the single biggest earner, Path of Exile 2 (16.6% of the money): 4,150 launches left.
Last 18 months
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,257 of 4,151.

A lens holds when chance and typical earnings both stay within 25% of standard. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Casual + RPG moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.

Releases

Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.