Niche

Casual + Science

Games tagged both Casual and Science: 44 indie paid launches, 1 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.

How to read this page

A hit is an estimated $100k+ first year. Revenue is estimated from Steam reviews, so read figures as "about". Earnings are sales on Steam after discounts and regional prices, before Steam's 30% cut, refunds and sales tax. About 58% of it reaches the developer.
Price moves the odds more than genre does, so the page opens on one price band. The keys in section 2 switch it.
From 26,758 indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, data of 2 Nov 2026. How it is measured.

Price Under $5

All prices1 in 15 hit $100k+Under $51 in 230 hit $100k+$5 to $101 in 28 hit $100k+$10 to $2021 in 100 hit $100k+$20 to $4044 in 100 hit $100k+

Base rate: indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old, 26,758 launches. Odds compare best within one price.

Lens Standard

Standard West-facing view Without the breakout Last 18 months

All indie paid launches 12 to 36 months old. Lens figures exist at all prices only; inside a price band this page shows the standard figures.

Sample 10+

10+ launchesshow small samples 30+ launches 100+ launchesonly big markets

Hides anything measured on fewer launches.

Under $5

Showing Casual + Science priced under $5.

1Scoreboard: the pair against each of its tags

The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.

ScoreboardDoes this pair beat its genres?Under $5

Casual + Science is too small to compare with Casual and is too small to compare with Science: 0 of its 32 launches earned $100k+ priced under $5, against 0.5 in 100 for Casual and 0 of 50 launches for Science.

Small sample: 32 launches, 0 hits.

TIEA tie

Tag onemood tagCasual

0.5in 100 earned
$100k+

Odds1 in 221

Typical earnings$113

Launches6,405 / 29 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

TIEA tie

This pairCasual + Science

0 of 32launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds0 of 32 launches

$1k+16 in 100

$10k+3 of 32 launches

Launches32 / 0 hits

Expected0.4 in 100

TIEA tie

Tag twoScience

0 of 50launches earned
$100k+ small

Odds0 of 50 launches

$1k+12 in 100

$10k+3 of 50 launches

Launches50 / 0 hits

Pair against ittoo few hits to compare

All indie launches under $5: 0.4 in 100 earned $100k+ (1 in 230), typical $162, from 14,050 launches.each block is 0.5 in 100 all indie at under $5Casual is a mood tag: GMD never ranks it alone, but every game carrying it is counted.

2Overlap: where the two tags meet

Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.

Price bandswitches the whole page

All prices44 in pair Under $532 in pair$5 to $107: too few$10 to $204: too few$20 to $401: too few

What the overlap means

The overlap is this niche: the 32 games tagged both Casual and Science priced under $5. 0 of 32 of them earned $100k+, against 0.5 in 100 for Casual-only games and 0 of 18 for Science-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Casual alone and is too small to compare with Science alone.

Both: 32 games priced under $5; 0 of 32 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 16 in 100 · $10k+ 3 of 32 launches · $100k+ 0 of 32 launches.

Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 32 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.

3Comparables

Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.

Comparables

Leaders

Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch

Bugaboo Pocketleads this pair52.9%

PairBugaboo Pocket52.9%

CasualHouse Flipper 23.9%

ScienceAviassembly29.9%

CheckOne game over half?yes

NextNearest hitsnot computed yet

Lens checkOne-hit market. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: too few to tell. Without the breakout: moves the answer. Last 18 months: too few to tell.

Open free preview

ComparablesFree until launchClick to unlockWho leads Casual + Science

What this card holds

Leaders. The top earner in this pair and in each of its two tags, with its share of the money.
One-hit check. Whether a single game holds over half of the pair's money.
Nearest hits. Similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year: not computed yet.

How the list will be picked

Same tag pairdata ready

Same price banddata ready

Launched within a year of each otherplanned

Earned $100k+planned

The list itselfnot computed yet

Free until launch: one click opens the card.

The leaders, in words

Bugaboo Pocket earned 52.9% of the estimated first-year money of the 44 Casual + Science launches.
Casual is led by House Flipper 2, with 3.9% of its money.
Science is led by Aviassembly, with 29.9% of its money.
One game holds over half of this pair's money: read every figure here as that game's story.

Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.

Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.

4Lens check: does the answer hold?

The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.

Does the answer hold?

All prices

Casual + Science is one-hit market: one game earned over half the money.

Casual + Science through every lens, all prices
This pair	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view43 of 44 launches	Without the breakout43 of 44 launches	Last 18 months11 of 44 launches
Launches counted	441 hits	431 hits	430 hits	110 hits
Earned $100k+	1 of 44too few for a rate	1 of 43too few for a rate	0 of 43too few for a rate	0 of 11too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+	11 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 23 in 100	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+2.3%0.1 more in 100; too few to tell	-100.0%2.3 fewer in 100	-100.0%2.3 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	under 100 launches	under 100 launches	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Too few to tell	Moves the answer	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Science, 12 to 36 months old: 44 launches.

Launches counted: 441 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 44too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: 11 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 23 in 100
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewToo few to tell

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 44 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 431 hits
Earned $100k+: 1 of 43too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: +2.3%0.1 more in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Without the breakoutMoves the answer

Drops the single biggest earner, Bugaboo Pocket (52.9% of the money): 43 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 430 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 43too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -100.0%2.3 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 11 of 44.

Launches counted: 110 hits
Earned $100k+: 0 of 11too few for a rate
Chance of $10k+: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -100.0%2.3 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged both Casual and Science, 12 to 36 months old: 44 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 1 of 44 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Bugaboo Pocket (52.9% of the money): 43 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 11 of 44.

Casual is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.

Casual through every lens, all prices
Casual	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view9,378 of 9,921 launches	Without the breakout9,920 of 9,921 launches	Last 18 months2,915 of 9,921 launches
Launches counted	9,921305 hits	9,378287 hits	9,920304 hits	2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+	3.1 in 1001 in 33	3.1 in 1001 in 33	3.1 in 1001 in 33	4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings	$252top tenth $10,057+	$268	$252	$272
Chance against standard	the base	-0.5%no change	-0.3%no change	+41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard	the base	+6.3%$16 more	0.0%no change	+7.9%$20 more
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Moves the answer

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.

Launches counted: 9,921305 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $252top tenth $10,057+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 9,378287 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $268
Chance against standard: -0.5%no change
Typical against standard: +6.3%$16 more

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 9,920304 hits
Earned $100k+: 3.1 in 1001 in 33
Typical first-year earnings: $252
Chance against standard: -0.3%no change
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Last 18 monthsMoves the answer

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Launches counted: 2,915127 hits
Earned $100k+: 4.4 in 1001 in 23
Typical first-year earnings: $272
Chance against standard: +41.7%1.3 more in 100
Typical against standard: +7.9%$20 more

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Casual, 12 to 36 months old: 9,921 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 543 of 9,921 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, House Flipper 2 (3.9% of the money): 9,920 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 2,915 of 9,921.

Science holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout; too few to tell in Last 18 months. No lens moves the chance or typical earnings more than chance alone would.

Science through every lens, all prices
Science	BaseStandardevery launch	West-facing view111 of 114 launches	Without the breakout113 of 114 launches	Last 18 months27 of 114 launches
Launches counted	1149 hits	1119 hits	1138 hits	272 hits
Earned $100k+	7.9 in 1001 in 13	8.1 in 1001 in 12	7.1 in 1001 in 14	2 of 27too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings	$581top tenth $73,946+	$581	$575	under 100 launches
Chance against standard	the base	+2.7%0.2 more in 100	-10.3%0.8 fewer in 100	-6.2%0.5 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard	the base	0.0%no change	-1.0%$6 less	under 100 launches
Does it hold?	The base view	Holds	Holds	Too few to tell

BaseStandardThe base view

Every indie paid launch tagged Science, 12 to 36 months old: 114 launches.

Launches counted: 1149 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.9 in 1001 in 13
Typical first-year earnings: $581top tenth $73,946+
Chance against standard: the base
Typical against standard: the base

West-facing viewHolds

Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 114 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.

Launches counted: 1119 hits
Earned $100k+: 8.1 in 1001 in 12
Typical first-year earnings: $581
Chance against standard: +2.7%0.2 more in 100
Typical against standard: 0.0%no change

Without the breakoutHolds

Drops the single biggest earner, Aviassembly (29.9% of the money): 113 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.

Launches counted: 1138 hits
Earned $100k+: 7.1 in 1001 in 14
Typical first-year earnings: $575
Chance against standard: -10.3%0.8 fewer in 100
Typical against standard: -1.0%$6 less

Last 18 monthsToo few to tell

Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 27 of 114.

Launches counted: 272 hits
Earned $100k+: 2 of 27too few for a rate
Typical first-year earnings: under 100 launches
Chance against standard: -6.2%0.5 fewer in 100; too few to tell
Typical against standard: under 100 launches

Standard: Every indie paid launch tagged Science, 12 to 36 months old: 114 launches.
West-facing view: Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 3 of 114 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Without the breakout: Drops the single biggest earner, Aviassembly (29.9% of the money): 113 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Last 18 months: Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 27 of 114.

A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.

5Premium early list

Alerts when Casual + Science moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.

Free until launch

Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.