Ticker: price and year-over-year change for 40 genres. Price is the median estimated first-year revenue of indie paid launches. The change shows for genres with 100+ launches. The same figures are on the Genres page.
Cinematic + FMV
Games tagged both Cinematic and FMV: 45 indie paid launches, 18 of them earned $100k+ in their first year.
Showing Cinematic + FMV priced $10 to $20. This filter changes the answer: at all prices the pair beats both its tags; priced $10 to $20 it is too small to compare with Cinematic and is too small to compare with FMV.
The pair's chance of a $100k+ first year beside each of its two tags, ranked like a high-score table, with typical earnings and the launches behind every figure.
Cinematic + FMV is too small to compare with Cinematic and is too small to compare with FMV: 11 of its 17 launches earned $100k+ priced $10 to $20, against 30.0 in 100 for Cinematic and 48.8 in 100 for FMV.
Small sample: 17 launches, 11 hits.
Each circle is one tag, sized by its launches, and the gold overlap is exactly this pair. Click a part to read it. Price changes the odds more than genre does (under $5: 0.4 in 100 launches earned $100k+; $20 to $40: 44.2 in 100), so read it within a price band.
The overlap is this niche: the 17 games tagged both Cinematic and FMV priced $10 to $20. 11 of 17 of them earned $100k+, against 21.9 in 100 for Cinematic-only games and 9 of 24 for FMV-only games, so the mix is too small to compare with Cinematic alone and is too small to compare with FMV alone.
Both: 17 games priced $10 to $20; 11 of 17 earned $100k+, odds by size $1k+ 17 of 17 launches · $10k+ 16 of 17 launches · $100k+ 11 of 17 launches.
Circle areas follow launch counts; the gold overlap is exactly the pair's 17 launches. The outer parts are each tag's launches minus the pair's, so their chance is exact; their typical earnings are not computed yet.
Who leads this pair and each of its tags. Free until launch: one click opens the card. The full comparables list (nearest hits by tag pair, price and launch year) is not computed yet, and the card says so.
Top earner, share of the moneyFree until launch
Lens checkChanged recently. Standard: the base the others are compared with. West-facing view: holds. Without the breakout: holds. Last 18 months: moves the answer.
Open free previewFree until launch: one click opens the card.
Nearest hits (similar games that earned $100k+, matched by tag pair, price and launch year): not computed yet.
Filters do not apply here yet. Leaders and shares are for all prices and the Standard view; per price band and per lens they are not computed yet.
The same figures with three kinds of games set aside: games mostly reviewed in Chinese, the single biggest earner, and everything older than 18 months.
Cinematic + FMV is changed recently: Last 18 months moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in West-facing view and Without the breakout.
| This pair | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view26 of 45 launches | Without the breakout44 of 45 launches | Last 18 months15 of 45 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 4518 hits | 269 hits | 4417 hits | 159 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 40.0 in 100 | 9 of 26too few for a rate | 38.6 in 100 | 9 of 15too few for a rate |
| Chance of $10k+ | 73 in 100chance of $10k+; $1k+ 89 in 100 | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | under 100 launches |
| Chance against standard | the base | -13.5%5.4 fewer in 100 | -3.4%1.4 fewer in 100 | +50.0%20.0 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | under 100 launches | under 100 launches | under 100 launches |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Holds | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged both Cinematic and FMV, 12 to 36 months old: 45 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 19 of 45 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, 美女，请别影响我成仙 (10.7% of the money): 44 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 15 of 45.
Cinematic is audience split +1: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would, and 1 more lens too. It holds in Without the breakout.
| Cinematic | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view452 of 489 launches | Without the breakout488 of 489 launches | Last 18 months144 of 489 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 48963 hits | 45252 hits | 48862 hits | 14425 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 12.9 in 100 | 11.5 in 100 | 12.7 in 100 | 17.4 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $1,363top tenth $162,155+ | $1,163 | $1,363 | $1,372 |
| Chance against standard | the base | -10.7%1.4 fewer in 100 | -1.4%0.2 fewer in 100 | +34.8%4.5 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | -14.7%$200 less | 0.0%no change | +0.7%$9 more |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Moves the answer | Holds | Moves the answer |
Every indie paid launch tagged Cinematic, 12 to 36 months old: 489 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 37 of 489 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, The Casting of Frank Stone™ (9.2% of the money): 488 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 144 of 489.
FMV is audience split: West-facing view moves the answer more than chance alone would. It holds in Without the breakout and Last 18 months.
| FMV | BaseStandardevery launch | West-facing view111 of 155 launches | Without the breakout154 of 155 launches | Last 18 months57 of 155 launches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launches counted | 15533 hits | 11119 hits | 15432 hits | 5716 hits |
| Earned $100k+ | 21.3 in 100 | 17.1 in 100 | 20.8 in 100 | 28.1 in 100 |
| Typical first-year earnings | $11,048top tenth $256,041+ | $5,421 | $11,048 | under 100 launches |
| Chance against standard | the base | -19.6%4.2 fewer in 100 | -2.4%0.5 fewer in 100 | +31.8%6.8 more in 100 |
| Typical against standard | the base | -50.9%$5,627 less | 0.0%no change | under 100 launches |
| Does it hold? | The base view | Moves the answer | Holds | Holds |
Every indie paid launch tagged FMV, 12 to 36 months old: 155 launches.
Games mostly reviewed outside China. Drops games mostly reviewed in Chinese, meaning 35% or more of their reviews are in Simplified Chinese: 44 of 155 launches here. Review language is measured for games with 2,000+ reviews; smaller games are guessed from their names.
Drops the single biggest earner, Road to Empress I (11.8% of the money): 154 launches left. It moves the answer when that one game earned over half the money.
Keeps only launches 18 months old or newer: 57 of 155.
A lens moves the chance only when it differs from standard by more than a random cut of the same size would, with 5+ hits on both sides; typical earnings are compared from 100 launches, within 25%. Without the breakout moves the answer when one game earned over half the money. Lens figures by price band are not computed yet, so this table is for all prices.
Alerts when Cinematic + FMV moves, comparables the day they land, and every lens for every pair and price. Free until launch.
Keep gold access after launch: alerts, comparables, every lens.
Ticker: 30 upcoming games dated within 90 days, with wishlist rank, release date and followers. The same list is on the Upcoming page.